Dumbarton vs Keith preview
In the Scotland FA Cup fixture between Dumbarton and Keith, the 1X2 probabilities show Dumbarton at 41%, Keith at 35%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 67%.
Dumbarton has an expected goals figure of 1.75, while Keith sits at 1.61. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unpredictability could affect the outcome. If either team underperforms or defensive strategies are employed, the expected goals and scoring probabilities may not hold true.
Dumbarton vs Keith: model vs market
| Source | Dumbarton | Draw | Keith |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 25% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Dumbarton and Keith expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.36
- Attack rating (Dumbarton / Keith)
- 0.92 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Dumbarton / Keith)
- 1.28 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dumbarton vs Keith score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dumbarton goals. Columns: Keith goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dumbarton vs Keith goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dumbarton vs Keith
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dumbarton | 41% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Keith | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dumbarton or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Keith) | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dumbarton win by 2+ | 22% | 4.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dumbarton and Keith recent form
Dumbarton
2W 0D 2L
Keith
1W 1D 2L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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