Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts preview
In the FA Cup match between Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts, the 1X2 probabilities show Edinburgh City at 43%, while both a draw and a Kelty Hearts win sit at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% probability. Edinburgh City has an expected goals figure of 1.45 compared to Kelty Hearts' 1.15, suggesting a slight edge for the home side.
However, both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating a reasonable chance for Kelty Hearts to find the net. Recent form shows Edinburgh City with one win in their last four matches, while Kelty Hearts has two draws and a win in their last four. This could impact the outcome, making it a closely contested fixture.
Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts: model vs market
| Source | Edinburgh City | Draw | Kelty Hearts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Edinburgh City / Kelty Hearts)
- 0.82 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Edinburgh City / Kelty Hearts)
- 0.89 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Edinburgh City goals. Columns: Kelty Hearts goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Edinburgh City | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Kelty Hearts | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.87 |
| No | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Edinburgh City or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Kelty Hearts) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Edinburgh City win by 2+ | 21% | 4.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts recent form
Edinburgh City
1W 1D 2L
Kelty Hearts
1W 1D 2L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Edinburgh City 4 · draws 1 · Kelty Hearts 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Kelty Hearts | 1-3 | Edinburgh City | League Two |
| 2024-03-30 | Kelty Hearts | 3-1 | Edinburgh City | League One |
| 2024-02-13 | Kelty Hearts | 3-2 | Edinburgh City | League One |
| 2024-02-03 | Edinburgh City | 0-3 | Kelty Hearts | League One |
| 2023-10-07 | Edinburgh City | 1-4 | Kelty Hearts | League One |
| 2023-07-19 | Edinburgh City | 3-5 | Kelty Hearts | League Cup |
| 2023-04-22 | Edinburgh City | 2-2 | Kelty Hearts | League One |
| 2023-03-04 | Kelty Hearts | 1-2 | Edinburgh City | League One |
| 2022-10-08 | Edinburgh City | 2-0 | Kelty Hearts | League One |
| 2022-07-30 | Kelty Hearts | 0-2 | Edinburgh City | League One |
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