Updated

Scotland FA Cup · Round of 128Not played

Cumbernauld Colts vs Banks O' Dee

Alin prediction Banks O' Dee to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Cumbernauld ColtsDrawBanks O' Dee
  • WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Cumbernauld Colts vs Banks O' Dee: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCumbernauld ColtsDrawBanks O' Dee
Model35%30%35%
Market———
Published35%30%35%
Edge———
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Cumbernauld Colts and Banks O' Dee expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Cumbernauld Colts
1.24Banks O' Dee
Total expected goals
2.48
Attack rating (Cumbernauld Colts / Banks O' Dee)
0.96 / 0.96
Defence rating (Cumbernauld Colts / Banks O' Dee)
0.86 / 0.69

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cumbernauld Colts vs Banks O' Dee score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.7% 9.1% 6.5% 2.7% 1.1% 1 9.1% 14.2% 8.0% 3.3% 1.4% 2 6.4% 8.0% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8% 3 2.6% 3.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Cumbernauld Colts goals. Columns: Banks O' Dee goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cumbernauld Colts vs Banks O' Dee goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cumbernauld Colts vs Banks O' Dee

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cumbernauld Colts35%2.86
Draw30%3.36
Banks O' Dee35%2.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.22
Under 2.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.07
Double chance1X (Cumbernauld Colts or draw)65%1.55
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Banks O' Dee)65%1.54
Handicap -1Banks O' Dee win by 2+16%6.30
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cumbernauld Colts and Banks O' Dee recent form

Cumbernauld Colts 2W 0D 2L
Banks O' Dee 3W 1D 2L

Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Banks O' Dee away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Cumbernauld Colts at home only, Banks O' Dee away only.

Other Round of 128 fixtures