Gretna 2008 vs Cumnock Juniors preview
In the Scotland FA Cup fixture, Gretna 2008 has a 39% chance of winning against Cumnock Juniors, who have a 35% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. The expected goals are 1.60 for Gretna 2008 and 1.50 for Cumnock Juniors, suggesting a closely contested match.
Both teams to score has a 63% likelihood, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 60%. Recent form shows Gretna 2008 with a mixed record of W-L-W-L, while Cumnock Juniors has been more consistent with a W-L-W-L-W streak. If either team fails to convert their chances, it could impact the expected goals and the likelihood of both teams scoring.
Gretna 2008 vs Cumnock Juniors: model vs market
| Source | Gretna 2008 | Draw | Cumnock Juniors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gretna 2008 and Cumnock Juniors expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Gretna 2008 / Cumnock Juniors)
- 0.95 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Gretna 2008 / Cumnock Juniors)
- 0.87 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gretna 2008 vs Cumnock Juniors score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gretna 2008 goals. Columns: Cumnock Juniors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gretna 2008 vs Cumnock Juniors goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gretna 2008 vs Cumnock Juniors
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gretna 2008 | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Cumnock Juniors | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gretna 2008 or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Cumnock Juniors) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gretna 2008 win by 2+ | 20% | 4.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gretna 2008 and Cumnock Juniors recent form
Gretna 2008
2W 0D 2L
Cumnock Juniors
3W 0D 2L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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