Johnstone Burgh vs Formartine United Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Johnstone Burgh vs Formartine United preview

In the FA Cup fixture between Johnstone Burgh and Formartine United, the 1X2 probabilities show Johnstone Burgh at 51%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1. The expected goals for Johnstone Burgh is 1.69, while Formartine United has a lower figure of 1.07.

Both teams to score stands at 55%, indicating a reasonable chance that both sides will find the net. However, the recent form of Formartine United, which includes two losses in their last five matches, could impact their performance. With a confidence grade of C, there is potential for unpredictability in the outcome.

Johnstone Burgh vs Formartine United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Johnstone Burgh	Draw	Formartine United
Model	51%	26%	23%
Market	—	—	—
Published	51%	26%	23%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.07.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Johnstone Burgh and Formartine United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69 Johnstone Burgh

1.07Formartine United

Total expected goals: 2.76
Attack rating ( Johnstone Burgh / Formartine United): 1.13 / 0.91
Defence rating ( Johnstone Burgh / Formartine United): 0.78 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Johnstone Burgh vs Formartine United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 5.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 1 9.6% 12.6% 6.1% 2.2% 0.7% 2 9.0% 9.7% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6% 3 5.1% 5.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 3.2% 3.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Johnstone Burgh goals. Columns: Formartine United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Johnstone Burgh vs Formartine United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Johnstone Burgh vs Formartine United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Johnstone Burgh	51%	1.97
	Draw	26%	3.79
	Formartine United	23%	4.38
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.92
	Under 2.5	48%	2.09
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.83
	No	45%	2.21
Double chance	1X ( Johnstone Burgh or draw)	77%	1.30
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Formartine United)	49%	2.03
Handicap -1	Johnstone Burgh win by 2+	28%	3.55
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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