Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves preview

In the Scotland FA Cup fixture between Troon FC and Caledonian Braves, the 1X2 probabilities show Troon FC at 36%, a draw at 23%, and Caledonian Braves at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance, indicating a competitive match.

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 73%, reflecting an expectation for an open game. Troon FC has an expected goals figure of 1.83, while Caledonian Braves stands at 1.94. However, the recent form shows Troon FC with a win, while Caledonian Braves has mixed results with a W-L-W-L-W pattern, which could influence the outcome.

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Troon FC	Draw	Caledonian Braves
Model	36%	23%	41%
Market	—	—	—
Published	36%	23%	41%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 5 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Troon FC and Caledonian Braves expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.83Troon FC

1.94Caledonian Braves

Total expected goals: 3.77
Attack rating (Troon FC / Caledonian Braves): 1.13 / 1.25
Defence rating (Troon FC / Caledonian Braves): 1.03 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 3.6% 4.3% 2.8% 2.1% 1 3.4% 9.0% 7.9% 5.1% 3.9% 2 3.9% 7.5% 7.3% 4.7% 3.5% 3 2.4% 4.6% 4.4% 2.9% 2.2% 4+ 1.6% 3.2% 3.1% 2.0% 1.5%

Rows: Troon FC goals. Columns: Caledonian Braves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 73%

Over 3.5 52%

Both teams to score: 73%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Troon FC	36%	2.75
	Draw	23%	4.35
	Caledonian Braves	41%	2.46
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	73%	1.38
	Under 2.5	27%	3.66
Both teams to score	Yes	73%	1.37
	No	27%	3.67
Double chance	1X (Troon FC or draw)	59%	1.68
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Caledonian Braves)	64%	1.57
Handicap -1	Caledonian Braves win by 2+	23%	4.41
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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