Troon FC vs Raith Rovers Prediction & Betting Tips 28/11/2026

Troon FC vs Raith Rovers preview

Troon FC faces Raith Rovers with a 32% chance for Troon FC to win, 27% for a draw, and 41% for Raith Rovers to take the match. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Troon FC has an expected goals figure of 1.34, while Raith Rovers stands at 1.53, indicating a slight edge for the visitors.

The model suggests a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, which means unexpected outcomes are possible. Troon FC's recent form shows two wins, while Raith Rovers has a mix of draws and wins. This inconsistency could influence the match's outcome.

Troon FC vs Raith Rovers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Troon FC	Draw	Raith Rovers
Model	32%	27%	41%
Market	—	—	—
Published	32%	27%	41%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Troon FC and Raith Rovers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.34Troon FC

1.53Raith Rovers

Total expected goals: 2.88
Attack rating (Troon FC / Raith Rovers): 1.30 / 0.88
Defence rating (Troon FC / Raith Rovers): 1.14 / 0.54

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Troon FC vs Raith Rovers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 7.5% 6.6% 3.4% 1.8% 1 6.4% 12.8% 8.9% 4.5% 2.5% 2 5.1% 7.8% 6.0% 3.1% 1.6% 3 2.3% 3.5% 2.7% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.0% 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Troon FC goals. Columns: Raith Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Troon FC vs Raith Rovers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 55%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Troon FC vs Raith Rovers

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Troon FC	32%	3.10
	Draw	27%	3.69
	Raith Rovers	41%	2.46
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55%	1.82
	Under 2.5	45%	2.22
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.69
	No	41%	2.45
Double chance	1X (Troon FC or draw)	59%	1.69
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Raith Rovers)	68%	1.48
Handicap -1	Raith Rovers win by 2+	21%	4.83
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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