Koper vs Maribor preview
Koper faces Maribor with a 38% chance of winning, while Maribor has a 32% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% probability. Koper has an expected goals figure of 1.26 compared to Maribor's 1.14, indicating a close match.
Both teams to score stands at 50%, suggesting a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, Koper's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Maribor has drawn 3 times in their last 5. This could affect the outcome, as Koper has a slight edge in recent performances, but Maribor's consistency could also play a significant role.
Koper vs Maribor: model vs market
| Source | Koper | Draw | Maribor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 36% | 28% | 35% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Koper vs Maribor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Koper, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Koper | 2.47 | 2.52 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.30 | -0.04 |
| Maribor | 2.48 | 2.48 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Koper and Maribor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Koper / Maribor)
- 1.17 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Koper / Maribor)
- 0.74 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Koper vs Maribor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Koper goals. Columns: Maribor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Koper vs Maribor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Koper vs Maribor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Koper | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Maribor | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Koper or draw) | 65% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Maribor) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Koper win by 2+ | 17% | 5.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Koper and Maribor recent form
Koper
4W 1D 1L
Maribor
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Koper at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Maribor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Koper at home only, Maribor away only.
Koper vs Maribor head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Koper 2 · draws 4 · Maribor 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Maribor | 2-0 | Koper | 1. SNL |
| 2026-04-14 | Koper | 3-1 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2026-02-08 | Maribor | 2-0 | Koper | 1. SNL |
| 2025-10-19 | Koper | 1-0 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2025-08-03 | Maribor | 2-2 | Koper | 1. SNL |
| 2025-05-18 | Koper | 1-1 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2025-03-16 | Maribor | 4-2 | Koper | 1. SNL |
| 2024-11-30 | Koper | 1-1 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2024-09-15 | Maribor | 2-0 | Koper | 1. SNL |
| 2024-05-19 | Koper | 1-1 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Radomlje vs Mura — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Nafta v Aluminij — match page 2026-10-28
- Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Brinje-Grosuplje vs Bravo 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Koper, previous: Koper vs Brinje-Grosuplje prediction
- Koper, next: Bravo – Koper, 2026-11-02
- Maribor, previous: Maribor vs Celje prediction
- Maribor, next: Maribor v Olimpija Ljubljana analysis