Nafta vs Aluminij preview
In the match between Nafta and Aluminij, the 1X2 probabilities show Nafta at 40%, draw at 32%, and Aluminij at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Nafta has an expected goals figure of 1.22, while Aluminij stands at 0.98.
However, the prediction could be challenged by the recent form of both teams. Nafta's last five matches show 2 wins and 1 draw, while Aluminij has only 1 win in their last five. Additionally, both teams to score has a 45% chance, indicating that while Nafta may have the edge, Aluminij could still find the net.
Nafta vs Aluminij: model vs market
| Source | Nafta | Draw | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 32% | 28% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nafta vs Aluminij odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nafta, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta | 2.35 | 2.33 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
| Aluminij | 2.60 | 2.62 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nafta and Aluminij expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Nafta / Aluminij)
- 0.89 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Nafta / Aluminij)
- 0.82 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nafta vs Aluminij score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nafta goals. Columns: Aluminij goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nafta vs Aluminij goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nafta vs Aluminij
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nafta | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Aluminij | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nafta or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Aluminij) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nafta win by 2+ | 18% | 5.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nafta and Aluminij recent form
Nafta
3W 1D 2L
Aluminij
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nafta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aluminij away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nafta at home only, Aluminij away only.
Nafta vs Aluminij head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Nafta 1 · draws 2 · Aluminij 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Aluminij | 1-1 | Nafta | 1. SNL |
| 2023-03-17 | Aluminij | 1-1 | Nafta | 2. SNL |
| 2022-09-04 | Nafta | 1-3 | Aluminij | 2. SNL |
| 2021-06-30 | Aluminij | 2-3 | Nafta | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Radomlje vs Mura — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Koper vs Maribor 2026-10-27
- Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Brinje-Grosuplje vs Bravo 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Nafta, previous: Mura – Nafta, 2026-10-17
- Nafta, next: Celje v Nafta analysis
- Aluminij, previous: Aluminij v Olimpija Ljubljana analysis
- Aluminij, next: Aluminij vs Radomlje prediction