Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje preview
Olimpija Ljubljana faces Celje with a 40% chance of winning, compared to Celje’s 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 18% of the time in our model. Olimpija Ljubljana has an expected goals figure of 1.33, while Celje sits at 0.61.
Recent form shows Olimpija Ljubljana with two wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Celje has only one win in their last six. Despite the statistics favoring Olimpija Ljubljana, Celje has a stronger head-to-head record, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters. This could influence the outcome, making it a competitive match.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje: model vs market
| Source | Olimpija Ljubljana | Draw | Celje |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 30% | 17% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Edge | +4% | +1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Olimpija Ljubljana below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Olimpija Ljubljana, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 2.58 | 2.45 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.29 | 3.38 | +0.08 |
| Celje | 2.44 | 2.62 | +0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Olimpija Ljubljana and Celje expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.09
- Attack rating (Olimpija Ljubljana / Celje)
- 0.99 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Olimpija Ljubljana / Celje)
- 0.75 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Olimpija Ljubljana goals. Columns: Celje goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 41% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Celje | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.57 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Olimpija Ljubljana or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Celje) | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Olimpija Ljubljana win by 2+ | 27% | 3.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Olimpija Ljubljana and Celje recent form
Olimpija Ljubljana
3W 2D 1L
Celje
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Olimpija Ljubljana at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celje away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana at home only, Celje away only.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Olimpija Ljubljana 4 · draws 2 · Celje 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Celje | 1-0 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2026-04-15 | Celje | 2-0 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2026-02-08 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 3-1 | Celje | 1. SNL |
| 2025-12-04 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1-0 | Celje | Cup |
| 2025-10-18 | Celje | 0-0 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2025-08-03 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 0-5 | Celje | 1. SNL |
| 2025-04-27 | Celje | 3-3 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2025-04-24 | Celje | 2-1 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Cup |
| 2025-03-02 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 2-0 | Celje | 1. SNL |
| 2024-11-03 | Celje | 0-1 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Radomlje vs Mura — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Koper vs Maribor 2026-10-27
- Nafta v Aluminij — match page 2026-10-28
- Brinje-Grosuplje vs Bravo 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Olimpija Ljubljana, previous: Aluminij v Olimpija Ljubljana analysis
- Olimpija Ljubljana, next: Maribor v Olimpija Ljubljana analysis
- Celje, previous: Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg: odds and pick
- Celje, next: Celje v Nafta analysis