Antequera vs Águilas preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture between Antequera and Águilas, the 1X2 probabilities show Antequera at 27%, a draw at 28%, and Águilas leading with 45%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which has a 9% chance of occurring. The expected goals indicate Antequera at 1.14 and Águilas at 1.52, suggesting Águilas may have the upper hand.
While there is a 50% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability for both teams to score, these factors could shift the outcome. Antequera's recent draw and Águilas' loss might impact their performance. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
Antequera vs Águilas: model vs market
| Source | Antequera | Draw | Águilas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.14.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Antequera and Águilas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Antequera / Águilas)
- 0.94 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Antequera / Águilas)
- 0.94 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Antequera vs Águilas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Antequera goals. Columns: Águilas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Antequera vs Águilas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Antequera vs Águilas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antequera | 27% | 3.66 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Águilas | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Antequera or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Águilas) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Águilas win by 2+ | 23% | 4.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Antequera and Águilas recent form
Antequera
0W 1D 0L
Águilas
0W 0D 1L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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