Atlético Baleares vs Eldense preview
In the Copa del Rey match between Atlético Baleares and Eldense, the 1X2 probabilities show Eldense at 49% and Atlético Baleares at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance of occurring. Eldense has a stronger expected goals figure at 1.64 compared to Atlético Baleares' 1.10, suggesting they may be more effective in attack.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Atlético Baleares manages to improve their recent form, which includes a mix of results with two wins and a loss in their last three matches. Additionally, both teams to score has a 55% likelihood, indicating that a goal from Atlético Baleares could change the dynamics of the game.
Atlético Baleares vs Eldense: model vs market
| Source | Atlético Baleares | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atlético Baleares and Eldense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Atlético Baleares / Eldense)
- 1.01 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Atlético Baleares / Eldense)
- 0.88 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlético Baleares vs Eldense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlético Baleares goals. Columns: Eldense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlético Baleares vs Eldense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlético Baleares vs Eldense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Baleares | 24% | 4.13 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Eldense | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlético Baleares or draw) | 51% | 1.96 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Eldense) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eldense win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlético Baleares and Eldense recent form
Atlético Baleares
2W 0D 1L
Eldense
4W 0D 2L
Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Eldense, previous: Albacete vs Eldense prediction