Albacete vs Eldense preview
In the match between Albacete and Eldense, the 1X2 probabilities show Albacete at 36% and Eldense at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, which aligns with Eldense's stronger expected goals of 1.91 compared to Albacete's 0.98.
Both teams to score has a probability of 54%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 55%. Albacete's recent form is concerning, with five losses and one draw in their last six matches. In contrast, Eldense has won four of their last six, which could influence the outcome.
Albacete vs Eldense: model vs market
| Source | Albacete | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | -24% | -3% | +27% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Eldense below the model: +26.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.05, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Albacete vs Eldense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eldense, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albacete | 2.25 | 2.22 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.45 | -0.07 |
| Eldense | 3.00 | 2.94 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Albacete and Eldense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Albacete / Eldense)
- 0.69 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Albacete / Eldense)
- 1.45 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Albacete vs Eldense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Albacete goals. Columns: Eldense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Albacete vs Eldense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Albacete vs Eldense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albacete | 36% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Eldense | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Albacete or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Eldense) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eldense win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Albacete and Eldense recent form
Albacete
0W 1D 5L
Eldense
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Albacete at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Eldense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Albacete at home only, Eldense away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cordoba vs Eibar 2026-10-24
- Leganes v Mallorca — match page 2026-10-24
- Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II 2026-10-24
- Girona vs Celta de Vigo II — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Almeria vs Real Oviedo 2026-10-24
- Sabadell v Tenerife — match page 2026-10-25
- Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-10-25
- Castellón vs Sporting Gijon — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Albacete, previous: Sporting Gijon v Albacete analysis
- Albacete, next: Calvo Sotelo – Albacete, 2026-10-28
- Eldense, previous: Real Valladolid – Eldense, 2026-10-18
- Eldense, next: Atlético Baleares vs Eldense: odds and pick