Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II preview
In the fixture between Las Palmas and Real Sociedad II, the 1X2 probabilities show Las Palmas at 51%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 9%. Las Palmas has an expected goals figure of 2.07, while Real Sociedad II sits at 1.64. This suggests a strong offensive performance from Las Palmas.
However, recent form could challenge this prediction. Las Palmas has recorded L-L-D-L-L-W, while Real Sociedad II has L-L-L-L-L-W. Both teams have a high probability of scoring, with Over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 71%. If either team underperforms, the expected goals could shift the outcome.
Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II: model vs market
| Source | Las Palmas | Draw | Real Sociedad II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | -3% | -3% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.63.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Las Palmas, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 1.82 | 1.85 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.60 | -0.18 |
| Real Sociedad II | 4.10 | 3.85 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Las Palmas and Real Sociedad II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Las Palmas / Real Sociedad II)
- 0.93 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Las Palmas / Real Sociedad II)
- 1.33 / 1.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Las Palmas goals. Columns: Real Sociedad II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Palmas | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Real Sociedad II | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Las Palmas or draw) | 74% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Sociedad II) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Las Palmas win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Las Palmas and Real Sociedad II recent form
Las Palmas
1W 1D 4L
Real Sociedad II
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Las Palmas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Sociedad II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Las Palmas at home only, Real Sociedad II away only.
Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Las Palmas 1 · draws 1 · Real Sociedad II 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Real Sociedad II | 1-1 | Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| 2025-09-12 | Las Palmas | 2-1 | Real Sociedad II | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Granada v Real Valladolid — match page 2026-10-23
- Cordoba vs Eibar 2026-10-24
- Leganes v Mallorca — match page 2026-10-24
- Girona vs Celta de Vigo II — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Almeria vs Real Oviedo 2026-10-24
- Sabadell v Tenerife — match page 2026-10-25
- Albacete vs Eldense — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Las Palmas, previous: Las Palmas vs Castellón prediction
- Las Palmas, next: RSD Alcalá – Las Palmas, 2026-10-27
- Real Sociedad II, previous: Real Sociedad II – Almeria, 2026-10-17