Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC preview
In the match between Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Cadiz at 52%, while AD Ceuta FC is at 22%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating a moderate expectation for goals from both sides.
Cadiz's expected goals are 1.71 compared to AD Ceuta FC's 1.04, reflecting a stronger attacking performance. However, Cadiz's recent form is concerning, with 3 losses in their last 6 matches. If they continue to struggle, it could impact their ability to secure a win despite the statistical edge.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC: model vs market
| Source | Cadiz | Draw | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.04.
- The market prices Cadiz below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cadiz, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz | 1.86 | 1.87 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.50 | +0.05 |
| AD Ceuta FC | 3.84 | 3.90 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Cadiz / AD Ceuta FC)
- 0.90 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Cadiz / AD Ceuta FC)
- 1.03 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cadiz goals. Columns: AD Ceuta FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cadiz | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| AD Ceuta FC | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cadiz or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or AD Ceuta FC) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cadiz win by 2+ | 29% | 3.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC recent form
Cadiz
1W 1D 4L
AD Ceuta FC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cadiz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AD Ceuta FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cadiz at home only, AD Ceuta FC away only.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cadiz 0 · draws 1 · AD Ceuta FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | AD Ceuta FC | 2-1 | Cadiz | Segunda División |
| 2025-09-28 | Cadiz | 0-0 | AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cordoba vs Eibar 2026-10-24
- Leganes v Mallorca — match page 2026-10-24
- Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II 2026-10-24
- Girona vs Celta de Vigo II — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Almeria vs Real Oviedo 2026-10-24
- Sabadell v Tenerife — match page 2026-10-25
- Albacete vs Eldense — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Castellón vs Sporting Gijon — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Cadiz, previous: Granada vs Cadiz prediction
- Cadiz, next: Xerez – Cadiz, 2026-10-28
- AD Ceuta FC, previous: AD Ceuta FC v Real Oviedo analysis
- AD Ceuta FC, next: Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC: odds and pick