Castellón vs Sporting Gijon preview
In the match between Castellón and Sporting Gijon, the 1X2 probabilities show Castellón at 62%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 15%. Castellón's expected goals stand at 1.56, while Sporting Gijon's is only 0.72. This suggests Castellón has a stronger chance of winning.
However, Sporting Gijon has shown resilience with a recent form of W-W-W-L-W-L. While Castellón has a solid form of W-L-D-W-W-W, the unpredictability of football means that Sporting Gijon could still find a way to score, impacting the likelihood of both teams to score, which is at 42%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon: model vs market
| Source | Castellón | Draw | Sporting Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Published | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Edge | -7% | +6% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.72.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Castellón, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 1.46 | 1.45 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.45 | 4.33 | -0.12 |
| Sporting Gijon | 6.05 | 6.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Castellón and Sporting Gijon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Castellón / Sporting Gijon)
- 1.27 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Castellón / Sporting Gijon)
- 0.58 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Castellón goals. Columns: Sporting Gijon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Castellón vs Sporting Gijon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Sporting Gijon | 15% | 6.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.39 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Castellón or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Gijon) | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win by 2+ | 31% | 3.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Castellón and Sporting Gijon recent form
Castellón
4W 1D 1L
Sporting Gijon
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Castellón at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Gijon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Castellón at home only, Sporting Gijon away only.
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Castellón 1 · draws 0 · Sporting Gijon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Sporting Gijon | 4-1 | Castellón | Segunda División |
| 2025-10-05 | Castellón | 3-1 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Leganes v Mallorca — match page 2026-10-24
- Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II 2026-10-24
- Girona vs Celta de Vigo II — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Almeria vs Real Oviedo 2026-10-24
- Sabadell v Tenerife — match page 2026-10-25
- Albacete vs Eldense — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Castellón, previous: Las Palmas vs Castellón prediction
- Castellón, next: Conquense vs Castellón: odds and pick
- Sporting Gijon, previous: Sporting Gijon v Albacete analysis
- Sporting Gijon, next: Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijon prediction