Conquense vs Castellón preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture between Conquense and Castellón, the 1X2 probabilities show Castellón at 60% to win, compared to Conquense's 13%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 17% chance. Conquense's expected goals stand at 0.58, while Castellón's is significantly higher at 1.55.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 36%, suggesting that while Castellón is favored, there could be scenarios where Conquense performs better than expected, potentially affecting the outcome.
Conquense vs Castellón: model vs market
| Source | Conquense | Draw | Castellón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 25% | 65% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 10% | 25% | 65% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.54.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Conquense and Castellón expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Conquense / Castellón)
- 0.80 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Conquense / Castellón)
- 0.81 / 0.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Conquense vs Castellón score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Conquense goals. Columns: Castellón goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Conquense vs Castellón goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Conquense vs Castellón
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Conquense | 10% | 9.59 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Castellón | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.86 |
| No | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Conquense or draw) | 35% | 2.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Castellón) | 90% | 1.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win by 2+ | 38% | 2.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Conquense and Castellón recent form
Conquense
1W 0D 1L
Castellón
4W 1D 1L
Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Castellón, previous: Castellón vs Sporting Gijon: odds and pick