Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijon preview
In the Copa del Rey match between Guijuelo and Sporting Gijon, the 1X2 probabilities show Sporting Gijon at 56% to win, while Guijuelo stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. This suggests that Sporting Gijon is favored to secure a narrow victory.
However, Guijuelo's recent form includes a loss, while Sporting Gijon has mixed results with two wins and four losses in their last six matches. The expected goals indicate Guijuelo at 0.93 and Sporting Gijon at 1.76. Factors like Guijuelo's ability to score or the potential for both teams to score, which stands at 51%, could influence the outcome.
Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijon: model vs market
| Source | Guijuelo | Draw | Sporting Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Guijuelo and Sporting Gijon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Guijuelo / Sporting Gijon)
- 0.94 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Guijuelo / Sporting Gijon)
- 1.04 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guijuelo goals. Columns: Sporting Gijon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guijuelo | 17% | 5.88 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Sporting Gijon | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guijuelo or draw) | 42% | 2.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Gijon) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Gijon win by 2+ | 34% | 2.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Guijuelo and Sporting Gijon recent form
Guijuelo
0W 0D 1L
Sporting Gijon
4W 0D 2L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Sporting Gijon, previous: Castellón vs Sporting Gijon: odds and pick