Lebrijana vs Getafe Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Lebrijana vs Getafe preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Lebrijana and Getafe, the 1X2 probabilities show Lebrijana at 48%, while Getafe stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance. Lebrijana's expected goals are 1.60, compared to Getafe's 1.07, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the home side.

However, there are factors that could change the outcome. The probability for both teams to score is 54%, suggesting that Getafe may find the net despite their recent form of D-L-W-L-D-D. Additionally, the Over 2.5 goals probability is 50%, which means a high-scoring game is possible, but not guaranteed.

Lebrijana vs Getafe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lebrijana	Draw	Getafe
Model	48%	27%	24%
Market	—	—	—
Published	48%	27%	24%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.07.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 2 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Lebrijana and Getafe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Lebrijana

1.07Getafe

Total expected goals: 2.67
Attack rating (Lebrijana / Getafe): 1.32 / 0.69
Defence rating (Lebrijana / Getafe): 0.81 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lebrijana vs Getafe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 6.2% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 1 9.9% 13.0% 6.4% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.8% 9.5% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 3 4.7% 5.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 2.7% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Lebrijana goals. Columns: Getafe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lebrijana vs Getafe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 50%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lebrijana vs Getafe

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lebrijana	48%	2.07
	Draw	27%	3.66
	Getafe	24%	4.11
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	50%	2.00
	Under 2.5	50%	2.00
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.86
	No	46%	2.16
Double chance	1X (Lebrijana or draw)	76%	1.32
	12 (either side)	73%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Getafe)	52%	1.94
Handicap -1	Lebrijana win by 2+	26%	3.86
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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