Atletico Calatayud vs Osasuna Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Atletico Calatayud vs Osasuna preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Atletico Calatayud and Osasuna, the 1X2 probabilities show Osasuna at 47%, while Atletico Calatayud sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 9% chance. With expected goals of 1.30 for Atletico Calatayud and 1.75 for Osasuna, the match could see a competitive edge.

The model suggests a 59% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability for both teams to score. However, if Atletico Calatayud's recent form, which includes two wins and two losses, improves significantly, it could challenge the expected outcome. Osasuna's recent struggles, with five winless matches, may also impact their performance.

Atletico Calatayud vs Osasuna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Atletico Calatayud	Draw	Osasuna
Model	22%	24%	54%
Market	—	—	—
Published	22%	24%	54%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.21.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Atletico Calatayud and Osasuna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.21Atletico Calatayud

1.96Osasuna

Total expected goals: 3.17
Attack rating (Atletico Calatayud / Osasuna): 0.92 / 0.95
Defence rating (Atletico Calatayud / Osasuna): 1.07 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Calatayud vs Osasuna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 7.2% 8.1% 5.3% 4.1% 1 4.1% 10.9% 9.8% 6.4% 4.9% 2 3.1% 6.0% 5.9% 3.9% 3.0% 3 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Atletico Calatayud goals. Columns: Osasuna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Calatayud vs Osasuna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Calatayud vs Osasuna

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Atletico Calatayud	22%	4.48
	Draw	24%	4.19
	Osasuna	54%	1.86
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.63
	Under 2.5	39%	2.59
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.63
	No	39%	2.59
Double chance	1X (Atletico Calatayud or draw)	46%	2.17
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Osasuna)	78%	1.29
Handicap -1	Osasuna win by 2+	32%	3.11
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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