Laredo vs Burgos preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture between Laredo and Burgos, the 1X2 probabilities show Laredo at 10%, a draw at 20%, and Burgos at 71%. Our model predicts the most likely scoreline to be 0-2, which occurs with a 13% chance.
Laredo's expected goals stand at 0.70, while Burgos has a higher figure of 2.20. There is a 55% chance of Over 2.5 goals, and a 46% chance for both teams to score. However, Laredo's recent form includes a loss, which could impact their performance against a Burgos side that has won three of its last five matches.
Laredo vs Burgos: model vs market
| Source | Laredo | Draw | Burgos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9% | 19% | 72% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 9% | 19% | 72% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Laredo and Burgos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Laredo / Burgos)
- 0.83 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Laredo / Burgos)
- 1.45 / 0.60
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Laredo vs Burgos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Laredo goals. Columns: Burgos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Laredo vs Burgos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Laredo vs Burgos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Laredo | 9% | 11.45 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.17 | |
| Burgos | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.33 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Laredo or draw) | 28% | 3.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Burgos) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win by 2+ | 48% | 2.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Laredo and Burgos recent form
Laredo
0W 0D 1L
Burgos
4W 0D 2L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Burgos, previous: Burgos vs Sabadell prediction