Girona vs Celta de Vigo II preview
In the fixture between Girona and Celta de Vigo II, Girona has a strong 68% chance to win, while Celta de Vigo II sits at just 12%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Girona's expected goals of 1.88 compared to Celta de Vigo II's 0.97.
However, the match could see both teams score, as both teams to score is also at 54%. Celta de Vigo II's recent form shows they have won 2 of their last 5 matches, which could lead to a surprise result if they perform above expectations.
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II: model vs market
| Source | Girona | Draw | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Published | 66% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | -12% | +5% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Girona, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 1.33 | 1.35 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 5.53 | 4.90 | -0.63 |
| Celta de Vigo II | 9.15 | 7.85 | -1.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Girona and Celta de Vigo II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Girona / Celta de Vigo II)
- 1.07 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Girona / Celta de Vigo II)
- 0.71 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Girona goals. Columns: Celta de Vigo II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Girona vs Celta de Vigo II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Girona | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| Celta de Vigo II | 13% | 7.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Girona or draw) | 87% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Celta de Vigo II) | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Girona win by 2+ | 34% | 2.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Girona and Celta de Vigo II recent form
Girona
3W 2D 1L
Celta de Vigo II
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Girona at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celta de Vigo II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Girona at home only, Celta de Vigo II away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Granada v Real Valladolid — match page 2026-10-23
- Cordoba vs Eibar 2026-10-24
- Leganes v Mallorca — match page 2026-10-24
- Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II 2026-10-24
- Almeria vs Real Oviedo 2026-10-24
- Sabadell v Tenerife — match page 2026-10-25
- Albacete vs Eldense — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Girona, previous: Girona vs FC Andorra: odds and pick
- Girona, next: Cuarte – Girona, 2026-10-27
- Celta de Vigo II, previous: Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife: odds and pick