Granada vs Real Valladolid preview
Granada faces Real Valladolid with a 44% chance of winning compared to 28% for both a draw and a Valladolid victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring 9% of the time in our model. Granada's expected goals stand at 1.56, while Real Valladolid's is slightly lower at 1.36.
Granada's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 matches, while Real Valladolid has 4 wins and 2 draws. Both teams to score has a 60% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at 56%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Why this pick: Granada vs Real Valladolid
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Granada 10, Real Valladolid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Granada vs Real Valladolid: model vs market
| Source | Granada | Draw | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | +4% | -4% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Granada below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Granada vs Real Valladolid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Granada, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granada | 2.16 | 2.20 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.13 | -0.25 |
| Real Valladolid | 3.53 | 3.13 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Granada and Real Valladolid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Granada / Real Valladolid)
- 1.10 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Granada / Real Valladolid)
- 1.01 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Granada vs Real Valladolid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Granada goals. Columns: Real Valladolid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Granada vs Real Valladolid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Granada vs Real Valladolid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Granada | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Real Valladolid | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Granada or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Valladolid) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Granada win by 2+ | 25% | 3.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Granada and Real Valladolid recent form
Granada
3W 1D 2L
Real Valladolid
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Granada at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Valladolid away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Granada at home only, Real Valladolid away only.
Granada vs Real Valladolid head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Granada 1 · draws 0 · Real Valladolid 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Granada | 5-1 | Real Valladolid | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-03 | Real Valladolid | 2-1 | Granada | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cordoba vs Eibar 2026-10-24
- Leganes v Mallorca — match page 2026-10-24
- Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II 2026-10-24
- Girona vs Celta de Vigo II — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Almeria vs Real Oviedo 2026-10-24
- Sabadell v Tenerife — match page 2026-10-25
- Albacete vs Eldense — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Granada, previous: Granada vs Cadiz prediction
- Granada, next: Cieza – Granada, 2026-10-28
- Real Valladolid, previous: Real Valladolid – Eldense, 2026-10-18
- Real Valladolid, next: Covadonga v Real Valladolid analysis