Almeria vs Real Oviedo preview
In the Segunda División match between Almeria and Real Oviedo, the 1X2 probabilities show Almeria at 67%, a draw at 21%, and Real Oviedo at 11%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Almeria has a strong expected goals figure of 2.06, while Real Oviedo sits at 0.74.
Almeria's recent form is impressive, with 6 consecutive wins, while Real Oviedo has mixed results, including 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 53%, and both teams to score stands at 46%. A poor performance from Almeria or an unexpected resurgence from Real Oviedo could change the expected outcome.
Why this pick: Almeria vs Real Oviedo
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Almeria 10, Real Oviedo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Almeria vs Real Oviedo: model vs market
| Source | Almeria | Draw | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Edge | +8% | -2% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Almeria below the model: +8.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Almeria vs Real Oviedo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Almeria, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria | 1.67 | 1.65 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.81 | 3.80 | -0.01 |
| Real Oviedo | 4.65 | 4.90 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Almeria and Real Oviedo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Almeria / Real Oviedo)
- 1.40 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Almeria / Real Oviedo)
- 0.70 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Almeria vs Real Oviedo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Almeria goals. Columns: Real Oviedo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Almeria vs Real Oviedo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Almeria vs Real Oviedo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 58% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Real Oviedo | 18% | 5.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Almeria or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Oviedo) | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win by 2+ | 41% | 2.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Almeria and Real Oviedo recent form
Almeria
6W 0D 0L
Real Oviedo
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Almeria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Oviedo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Almeria at home only, Real Oviedo away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cordoba vs Eibar 2026-10-24
- Leganes v Mallorca — match page 2026-10-24
- Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II 2026-10-24
- Girona vs Celta de Vigo II — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Sabadell v Tenerife — match page 2026-10-25
- Albacete vs Eldense — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-10-25
- Castellón vs Sporting Gijon — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Almeria, previous: Real Sociedad II – Almeria, 2026-10-17
- Almeria, next: Castellonense v Almeria analysis
- Real Oviedo, previous: AD Ceuta FC v Real Oviedo analysis
- Real Oviedo, next: Numancia vs Real Oviedo: odds and pick