Leganes vs Mallorca preview
In the match between Leganes and Mallorca, the 1X2 probabilities show Mallorca at 57% to win, compared to Leganes at just 13%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 20% chance. This suggests that Mallorca is expected to control the game, but Leganes could still surprise if they improve their recent form, which includes four losses in their last six matches.
The expected goals further highlight the disparity, with Leganes at 0.49 and Mallorca at 1.33. The chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 28%, while both teams to score is at 30%. If Leganes can find their scoring touch, the match could deviate from the predicted outcome.
Why this pick: Leganes vs Mallorca
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Leganes 10, Mallorca 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Leganes vs Mallorca: model vs market
| Source | Leganes | Draw | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 31% | 56% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Published | 26% | 30% | 45% |
| Edge | -17% | +2% | +15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mallorca below the model: +15.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Leganes vs Mallorca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mallorca, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Mallorca | 2.30 | 2.27 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leganes and Mallorca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.81
- Attack rating (Leganes / Mallorca)
- 0.54 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Leganes / Mallorca)
- 1.20 / 0.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leganes vs Mallorca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leganes goals. Columns: Mallorca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leganes vs Mallorca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leganes vs Mallorca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leganes | 26% | 3.89 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Mallorca | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.37 |
| No | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leganes or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Mallorca) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mallorca win by 2+ | 28% | 3.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leganes and Mallorca recent form
Leganes
1W 0D 5L
Mallorca
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leganes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mallorca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leganes at home only, Mallorca away only.
Leganes vs Mallorca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Leganes 0 · draws 1 · Mallorca 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-19 | Mallorca | 0-0 | Leganes | La Liga |
| 2024-08-31 | Leganes | 0-1 | Mallorca | La Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Granada v Real Valladolid — match page 2026-10-23
- Cordoba vs Eibar 2026-10-24
- Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II 2026-10-24
- Girona vs Celta de Vigo II — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Almeria vs Real Oviedo 2026-10-24
- Sabadell v Tenerife — match page 2026-10-25
- Albacete vs Eldense — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Leganes, previous: Leganes – Cordoba, 2026-10-16
- Leganes, next: Trival Valderas vs Leganes prediction
- Mallorca, previous: Eibar v Mallorca analysis
- Mallorca, next: Alcoyano vs Mallorca: odds and pick