Auriense vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Auriense vs Deportivo La Coruna preview

In the Copa del Rey match between Auriense and Deportivo La Coruna, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo La Coruna at 48%, while Auriense sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 12% probability.

Deportivo La Coruna has a recent form of L-D-L-D-W-W, while Auriense's latest result is a loss followed by a win. The expected goals indicate Auriense at 0.96 and Deportivo La Coruna at 1.47. Factors that could affect the outcome include Auriense's ability to improve their scoring or Deportivo La Coruna's inconsistency in recent performances.

Auriense vs Deportivo La Coruna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Auriense	Draw	Deportivo La Coruna
Model	23%	29%	48%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	29%	48%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.92.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Auriense and Deportivo La Coruna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.92Auriense

1.44Deportivo La Coruna

Total expected goals: 2.36
Attack rating (Auriense / Deportivo La Coruna): 0.88 / 0.92
Defence rating (Auriense / Deportivo La Coruna): 0.81 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Auriense vs Deportivo La Coruna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.7% 12.4% 9.8% 4.7% 2.3% 1 7.4% 13.7% 9.0% 4.3% 2.1% 2 4.0% 5.7% 4.1% 2.0% 1.0% 3 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Auriense goals. Columns: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Auriense vs Deportivo La Coruna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 42%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Auriense vs Deportivo La Coruna

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Auriense	23%	4.41
	Draw	29%	3.42
	Deportivo La Coruna	48%	2.08
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42%	2.38
	Under 2.5	58%	1.72
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.12
	No	53%	1.89
Double chance	1X (Auriense or draw)	52%	1.93
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Deportivo La Coruna)	77%	1.29
Handicap -1	Deportivo La Coruna win by 2+	24%	4.09
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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