Ribadesella CF vs Racing Santander Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Ribadesella CF vs Racing Santander preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Ribadesella CF and Racing Santander, the 1X2 probabilities show Racing Santander at 43% to win, compared to Ribadesella CF's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.37 for Ribadesella CF and 1.64 for Racing Santander.

Both teams to score has a probability of 61%, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 58%. However, Ribadesella CF's recent form shows a draw followed by a win, which may impact their performance against a Racing Santander side that has mixed results, including two losses in their last five matches.

Ribadesella CF vs Racing Santander: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ribadesella CF	Draw	Racing Santander
Model	36%	27%	37%
Market	—	—	—
Published	36%	27%	37%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ribadesella CF and Racing Santander expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.46Ribadesella CF

1.47Racing Santander

Total expected goals: 2.93
Attack rating (Ribadesella CF / Racing Santander): 0.89 / 0.94
Defence rating (Ribadesella CF / Racing Santander): 0.81 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ribadesella CF vs Racing Santander score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 6.7% 5.8% 2.8% 1.5% 1 6.6% 12.6% 8.4% 4.2% 2.1% 2 5.7% 8.3% 6.2% 3.0% 1.5% 3 2.7% 4.1% 3.0% 1.5% 0.8% 4+ 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Ribadesella CF goals. Columns: Racing Santander goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ribadesella CF vs Racing Santander goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ribadesella CF vs Racing Santander

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ribadesella CF	36%	2.77
	Draw	27%	3.72
	Racing Santander	37%	2.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.78
	Under 2.5	44%	2.28
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.66
	No	40%	2.52
Double chance	1X (Ribadesella CF or draw)	63%	1.59
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Racing Santander)	64%	1.57
Handicap -1	Racing Santander win by 2+	18%	5.51
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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