Hortaleza vs Sevilla Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Hortaleza vs Sevilla preview

In the Copa del Rey match between Hortaleza and Sevilla, the 1X2 probabilities show Sevilla at 43%, with Hortaleza at 30% and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a 9% chance.

Sevilla has an expected goals figure of 1.59 compared to Hortaleza's 1.31, indicating a stronger attacking potential. However, both teams to score stands at 59%, suggesting that Hortaleza could find the net. If Sevilla's recent form, which includes two wins in their last five matches, falters, it could impact the expected outcome.

Hortaleza vs Sevilla: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hortaleza	Draw	Sevilla
Model	31%	26%	42%
Market	—	—	—
Published	31%	26%	42%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Hortaleza and Sevilla expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37Hortaleza

1.62Sevilla

Total expected goals: 2.99
Attack rating (Hortaleza / Sevilla): 1.08 / 0.84
Defence rating (Hortaleza / Sevilla): 0.99 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hortaleza vs Sevilla score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 7.1% 6.6% 3.6% 2.1% 1 5.8% 12.3% 9.1% 4.9% 2.8% 2 4.7% 7.6% 6.2% 3.3% 1.9% 3 2.1% 3.5% 2.8% 1.5% 0.9% 4+ 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Hortaleza goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hortaleza vs Sevilla goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hortaleza vs Sevilla

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hortaleza	31%	3.20
	Draw	26%	3.79
	Sevilla	42%	2.36
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.74
	Under 2.5	43%	2.35
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.64
	No	39%	2.56
Double chance	1X (Hortaleza or draw)	58%	1.74
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Sevilla)	69%	1.45
Handicap -1	Sevilla win by 2+	22%	4.49
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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