Albacete vs Eibar: model vs market
| Source | Albacete | Draw | Eibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 24% | 59% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 37% |
| Published | 31% | 27% | 43% |
| Edge | -19% | -3% | +22% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Eibar below the model: +22.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Albacete vs Eibar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eibar, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albacete | 2.51 | 2.62 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.38 | -0.04 |
| Eibar | 2.85 | 2.52 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Albacete and Eibar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Albacete / Eibar)
- 0.77 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Albacete / Eibar)
- 1.13 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Albacete vs Eibar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Albacete goals. Columns: Eibar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Albacete vs Eibar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Albacete vs Eibar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albacete | 31% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Eibar | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Albacete or draw) | 57% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Eibar) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eibar win by 2+ | 35% | 2.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Albacete and Eibar recent form
Albacete
0W 1D 5L
Eibar
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Albacete at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Eibar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Albacete at home only, Eibar away only.
Albacete vs Eibar head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Albacete 2 · draws 3 · Eibar 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Albacete | 0-3 | Eibar | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-08 | Eibar | 3-2 | Albacete | Segunda División |
| 2025-01-18 | Eibar | 1-1 | Albacete | Segunda División |
| 2024-09-09 | Albacete | 0-1 | Eibar | Segunda División |
| 2024-04-28 | Albacete | 2-1 | Eibar | Segunda División |
| 2023-11-12 | Eibar | 1-1 | Albacete | Segunda División |
| 2023-04-14 | Albacete | 3-1 | Eibar | Segunda División |
| 2022-10-23 | Eibar | 1-1 | Albacete | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- Almeria v Burgos — match page 2026-10-03
- Cadiz vs Leganes — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Real Sociedad II vs Granada — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II 2026-10-04
- Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid 2026-10-04
- Castellón v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-10-04
- Girona v Mallorca — match page 2026-10-04