Why this pick: Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Las Palmas 10, Real Valladolid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid: model vs market
| Source | Las Palmas | Draw | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 29% |
| Published | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.01.
- The market prices Las Palmas below the model: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Las Palmas, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 2.20 | 2.25 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.15 | -0.05 |
| Real Valladolid | 3.37 | 3.18 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Las Palmas and Real Valladolid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Las Palmas / Real Valladolid)
- 1.02 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Las Palmas / Real Valladolid)
- 1.15 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Las Palmas goals. Columns: Real Valladolid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Palmas | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Real Valladolid | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.98 |
| No | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Las Palmas or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Valladolid) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Las Palmas win by 2+ | 24% | 4.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Las Palmas and Real Valladolid recent form
Las Palmas
2W 1D 3L
Real Valladolid
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Las Palmas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Valladolid away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Las Palmas at home only, Real Valladolid away only.
Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Las Palmas 4 · draws 2 · Real Valladolid 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Las Palmas | 2-1 | Real Valladolid | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-14 | Real Valladolid | 0-1 | Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| 2025-02-28 | Real Valladolid | 1-1 | Las Palmas | La Liga |
| 2024-12-07 | Las Palmas | 2-1 | Real Valladolid | La Liga |
| 2022-03-19 | Real Valladolid | 0-1 | Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| 2021-12-15 | Real Valladolid | 3-1 | Las Palmas | Copa del Rey |
| 2021-08-15 | Las Palmas | 1-1 | Real Valladolid | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Eldense v Real Oviedo — match page 2026-10-02
- Albacete vs Eibar 2026-10-03
- Almeria v Burgos — match page 2026-10-03
- Cadiz vs Leganes — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Real Sociedad II vs Granada — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II 2026-10-04
- Castellón v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-10-04
- Girona v Mallorca — match page 2026-10-04