Why this pick: Girona vs Mallorca
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Girona 10, Mallorca 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Girona vs Mallorca: model vs market
| Source | Girona | Draw | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 33% |
| Published | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Edge | -3% | +4% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Girona vs Mallorca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Girona, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 2.10 | 2.40 | +0.30 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.25 | -0.25 |
| Mallorca | 3.20 | 2.84 | -0.36 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Girona and Mallorca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.04
- Attack rating (Girona / Mallorca)
- 1.16 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Girona / Mallorca)
- 0.90 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Girona vs Mallorca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Girona goals. Columns: Mallorca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Girona vs Mallorca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Girona vs Mallorca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Girona | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Mallorca | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.36 |
| No | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Girona or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Mallorca) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Girona win by 2+ | 15% | 6.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Girona and Mallorca recent form
Girona
4W 0D 2L
Mallorca
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Girona at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mallorca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Girona at home only, Mallorca away only.
Girona vs Mallorca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Girona 4 · draws 1 · Mallorca 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Girona | 0-1 | Mallorca | La Liga |
| 2026-01-04 | Mallorca | 1-2 | Girona | La Liga |
| 2025-05-05 | Girona | 1-0 | Mallorca | La Liga |
| 2024-12-14 | Mallorca | 2-1 | Girona | La Liga |
| 2024-03-03 | Mallorca | 1-0 | Girona | La Liga |
| 2024-01-24 | Mallorca | 3-2 | Girona | Copa del Rey |
| 2023-09-23 | Girona | 5-3 | Mallorca | La Liga |
| 2023-05-04 | Girona | 2-1 | Mallorca | La Liga |
| 2022-09-03 | Mallorca | 1-1 | Girona | La Liga |
| 2021-01-30 | Mallorca | 1-0 | Girona | Segunda División |
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