Segunda División · Matchday 8

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II

· El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini, Gijon· Referee German Cid Camacho

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Sporting Gijon to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sporting GijonDrawCelta de Vigo II

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSporting GijonDrawCelta de Vigo II
Model50%28%22%
Market59%24%17%
Published57%25%18%
Edge-9%+4%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sporting Gijon, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.55Now 1.57 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sporting Gijon1.551.57+0.02
Draw4.213.90-0.31
Celta de Vigo II5.655.40-0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Sporting Gijon
0.92Celta de Vigo II
Total expected goals
2.45
Attack rating (Sporting Gijon / Celta de Vigo II)
0.92 / 0.88
Defence rating (Sporting Gijon / Celta de Vigo II)
0.89 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.8% 6.7% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 1 12.0% 13.4% 5.6% 1.7% 0.5% 2 10.1% 9.3% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% 3 5.1% 4.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Sporting Gijon goals. Columns: Celta de Vigo II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sporting Gijon57%1.76
Draw25%4.02
Celta de Vigo II18%5.48
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.25
Under 2.556%1.80
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.07
No52%1.94
Double chance1X (Sporting Gijon or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Celta de Vigo II)43%2.32
Handicap -1Sporting Gijon win by 2+26%3.78
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II recent form

Sporting Gijon 3W 0D 3L
Celta de Vigo II 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sporting Gijon at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

Celta de Vigo II away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting Gijon at home only, Celta de Vigo II away only.

Other Matchday 8 fixtures