Segunda División · Matchday 8

Almeria vs Burgos

· UD Almería Stadium, Almeria· Referee Iosu Galech Apezteguia

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Almeria to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AlmeriaDrawBurgos

Almeria vs Burgos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlmeriaDrawBurgos
Model37%35%28%
Market59%24%17%
Published54%26%20%
Edge-22%+11%+11%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Almeria vs Burgos odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Almeria, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 1.82Now 1.57 -0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Almeria1.821.57-0.25
Draw3.673.95+0.28
Burgos4.555.50+0.95

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Almeria and Burgos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.00Almeria
0.83Burgos
Total expected goals
1.83
Attack rating (Almeria / Burgos)
1.05 / 1.02
Defence rating (Almeria / Burgos)
0.69 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Almeria vs Burgos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.4% 12.0% 5.5% 1.5% 0.4% 1 14.7% 14.6% 5.5% 1.5% 0.4% 2 8.0% 6.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 3 2.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Almeria goals. Columns: Burgos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Almeria vs Burgos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%
Over 1.5 56%
Over 2.5 28%
Over 3.5 11%
Both teams to score
37%
No goals (0–0)
17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Almeria vs Burgos

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Almeria54%1.86
Draw26%3.78
Burgos20%5.09
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.528%3.60
Under 2.572%1.38
Both teams to scoreYes37%2.70
No63%1.59
Double chance1X (Almeria or draw)80%1.24
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Burgos)46%2.17
Handicap -1Almeria win by 2+15%6.78
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Almeria and Burgos recent form

Almeria 4W 0D 2L
Burgos 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Almeria at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Burgos away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Almeria at home only, Burgos away only.

Almeria vs Burgos head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Almeria 3 · draws 1 · Burgos 2.

AlmeriaDrawsBurgos
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Burgos0-0AlmeriaSegunda División
2025-12-14Almeria1-2BurgosSegunda División
2025-03-21Burgos3-1AlmeriaSegunda División
2024-10-05Almeria2-0BurgosSegunda División
2022-04-30Burgos0-2AlmeriaSegunda División
2021-11-07Almeria2-0BurgosSegunda División

Other Matchday 8 fixtures