Segunda División · Matchday 8

Cadiz vs Leganes

· Nuevo Mirandilla, Cadiz· Referee Morilla Turrion, Alejandro

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Cadiz to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CadizDrawLeganes

Why this pick: Cadiz vs Leganes

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Cadiz 10, Leganes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

CadizLeganes
1.43 xG per 90 1.20
1.28 npxG per 90 1.20
16.3 PPDA 10.6
6.8 Deep completions per 90 4.7
1.38 xPTS per 90 1.30

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Cadiz vs Leganes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCadizDrawLeganes
Model42%32%27%
Market34%30%36%
Published36%31%34%
Edge+8%+2%-9%
  • The market prices Cadiz below the model: +7.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cadiz vs Leganes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cadiz, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.58Now 2.75 +0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cadiz2.582.75+0.17
Draw3.303.10-0.20
Leganes2.842.60-0.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cadiz and Leganes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.22Cadiz
0.93Leganes
Total expected goals
2.15
Attack rating (Cadiz / Leganes)
0.85 / 0.69
Defence rating (Cadiz / Leganes)
1.15 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cadiz vs Leganes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.9% 9.5% 5.0% 1.6% 0.4% 1 12.9% 14.5% 6.1% 1.9% 0.5% 2 8.7% 8.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 3 3.5% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Cadiz goals. Columns: Leganes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cadiz vs Leganes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cadiz vs Leganes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cadiz36%2.79
Draw31%3.28
Leganes34%2.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537%2.74
Under 2.563%1.58
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.27
No56%1.79
Double chance1X (Cadiz or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or Leganes)64%1.56
Handicap -1Cadiz win by 2+19%5.29
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cadiz and Leganes recent form

Cadiz 0W 3D 3L
Leganes 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cadiz at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leganes away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cadiz at home only, Leganes away only.

Cadiz vs Leganes head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Cadiz 1 · draws 1 · Leganes 0.

CadizDrawsLeganes
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-24Cadiz3-0LeganesSegunda División
2025-08-22Leganes1-1CadizSegunda División

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