Segunda División · Matchday 8

Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC

· Estadio Municipal Castalia, Castellon· Referee Marta Huerta de Aza

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Castellón to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CastellónDrawAD Ceuta FC

Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCastellónDrawAD Ceuta FC
Model78%16%7%
Market75%15%9%
Published76%15%9%
Edge+2%0%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 0.64.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Castellón below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Castellón, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.26Now 1.22 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Castellón1.261.22-0.04
Draw6.406.00-0.40
AD Ceuta FC10.509.80-0.70

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Castellón and AD Ceuta FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.53Castellón
0.64AD Ceuta FC
Total expected goals
3.16
Attack rating (Castellón / AD Ceuta FC)
1.36 / 0.86
Defence rating (Castellón / AD Ceuta FC)
0.63 / 1.28

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1 10.0% 7.5% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 2 13.5% 8.6% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 3 11.4% 7.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 13.1% 8.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1%

Rows: Castellón goals. Columns: AD Ceuta FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Castellón76%1.32
Draw15%6.49
AD Ceuta FC9%11.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.58
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.27
No56%1.79
Double chance1X (Castellón or draw)91%1.09
12 (either side)85%1.18
X2 (draw or AD Ceuta FC)24%4.15
Handicap -1Castellón win by 2+57%1.77
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Castellón and AD Ceuta FC recent form

Castellón 5W 1D 0L
AD Ceuta FC 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Castellón at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

AD Ceuta FC away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
3.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Castellón at home only, AD Ceuta FC away only.

Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Castellón 1 · draws 3 · AD Ceuta FC 0.

CastellónDrawsAD Ceuta FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09AD Ceuta FC1-1CastellónSegunda División
2025-09-14Castellón3-3AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
2024-02-11Castellón2-2AD Ceuta FCPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
2023-10-15AD Ceuta FC1-3CastellónPrimera División RFEF - Group 2

Other Matchday 8 fixtures