Segunda División · Matchday 8

Eldense vs Real Oviedo

· Nuevo Pepico Amat, Alicante· Referee Rafael Sanchez Lopez

Full time4 – 1

Alin prediction was Eldense to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
EldenseDrawReal Oviedo

Eldense vs Real Oviedo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEldenseDrawReal Oviedo
Model32%37%31%
Market38%31%31%
Published36%32%31%
Edge-6%+6%0%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Eldense vs Real Oviedo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Eldense, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-26.

Opened 3.00Now 2.47 -0.53
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Eldense3.002.47-0.53
Draw3.223.00-0.22
Real Oviedo2.512.96+0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Eldense and Real Oviedo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.84Eldense
0.84Real Oviedo
Total expected goals
1.67
Attack rating (Eldense / Real Oviedo)
0.72 / 0.77
Defence rating (Eldense / Real Oviedo)
0.92 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Eldense vs Real Oviedo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.1% 14.4% 6.6% 1.8% 0.5% 1 14.4% 14.4% 5.5% 1.5% 0.4% 2 6.6% 5.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 3 1.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Eldense goals. Columns: Real Oviedo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Eldense vs Real Oviedo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%
Over 1.5 51%
Over 2.5 24%
Over 3.5 9%
Both teams to score
33%
No goals (0–0)
20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Eldense vs Real Oviedo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Eldense36%2.77
Draw32%3.08
Real Oviedo31%3.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.524%4.24
Under 2.576%1.31
Both teams to scoreYes33%2.99
No67%1.50
Double chance1X (Eldense or draw)69%1.46
12 (either side)68%1.48
X2 (draw or Real Oviedo)64%1.56
Handicap -1Eldense win by 2+11%9.13
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Eldense and Real Oviedo recent form

Eldense 1W 2D 3L
Real Oviedo 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Eldense at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Oviedo away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Eldense at home only, Real Oviedo away only.

Eldense vs Real Oviedo head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Eldense 0 · draws 3 · Real Oviedo 1.

EldenseDrawsReal Oviedo
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-02-10Real Oviedo0-0EldenseSegunda División
2024-09-21Eldense1-1Real OviedoSegunda División
2024-02-04Real Oviedo1-1EldenseSegunda División
2023-10-01Eldense1-3Real OviedoSegunda División

Other Matchday 8 fixtures