Segunda División · Matchday 8

Real Sociedad II vs Granada

· Estadio Ciudad Deportiva Zubieta, San Sebastian· Referee Andres Fuentes Molina

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Real Sociedad II to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real Sociedad IIDrawGranada

Real Sociedad II vs Granada: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal Sociedad IIDrawGranada
Model47%26%27%
Market38%29%33%
Published40%28%32%
Edge+9%-3%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.26.
  • The market prices Real Sociedad II below the model: +9.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Sociedad II vs Granada odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad II, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 2.39Now 2.46 +0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Sociedad II2.392.46+0.07
Draw3.283.25-0.03
Granada2.842.80-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Sociedad II and Granada expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.72Real Sociedad II
1.26Granada
Total expected goals
2.98
Attack rating (Real Sociedad II / Granada)
0.92 / 0.97
Defence rating (Real Sociedad II / Granada)
1.10 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Sociedad II vs Granada score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 5.3% 4.0% 1.7% 0.7% 1 7.6% 12.1% 6.9% 2.9% 1.2% 2 7.5% 9.5% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 4.3% 5.4% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 2.7% 3.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Real Sociedad II goals. Columns: Granada goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Sociedad II vs Granada goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Sociedad II vs Granada

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Sociedad II40%2.48
Draw28%3.57
Granada32%3.15
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.75
Under 2.543%2.34
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.49
Double chance1X (Real Sociedad II or draw)68%1.46
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Granada)60%1.67
Handicap -1Real Sociedad II win by 2+26%3.85
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Sociedad II and Granada recent form

Real Sociedad II 2W 2D 2L
Granada 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Sociedad II at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Granada away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Sociedad II at home only, Granada away only.

Real Sociedad II vs Granada head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Real Sociedad II 0 · draws 0 · Granada 2.

Real Sociedad IIDrawsGranada
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-22Real Sociedad II0-2GranadaSegunda División
2025-10-04Granada5-2Real Sociedad IISegunda División

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