Segunda División · Matchday 8

Cordoba vs Tenerife

· Estadio Nuevo Arcángel, Cordoba· Referee Ojaos Valera, Alejandro

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Cordoba to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CordobaDrawTenerife

Cordoba vs Tenerife: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCordobaDrawTenerife
Model35%28%38%
Market50%27%24%
Published46%27%27%
Edge-15%+1%+14%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cordoba vs Tenerife odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cordoba, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.90Now 1.87 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cordoba1.901.87-0.03
Draw3.403.50+0.10
Tenerife3.823.96+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cordoba and Tenerife expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.38Cordoba
1.44Tenerife
Total expected goals
2.82
Attack rating (Cordoba / Tenerife)
1.01 / 0.92
Defence rating (Cordoba / Tenerife)
1.34 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cordoba vs Tenerife score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 7.4% 6.2% 3.0% 1.5% 1 7.0% 13.0% 8.5% 4.1% 2.0% 2 5.7% 8.2% 5.9% 2.8% 1.4% 3 2.6% 3.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Cordoba goals. Columns: Tenerife goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cordoba vs Tenerife goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cordoba vs Tenerife

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cordoba46%2.17
Draw27%3.72
Tenerife27%3.70
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.87
Under 2.546%2.16
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.71
No42%2.40
Double chance1X (Cordoba or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Tenerife)54%1.86
Handicap -1Cordoba win by 2+17%6.05
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cordoba and Tenerife recent form

Cordoba 2W 0D 4L
Tenerife 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cordoba at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.

Tenerife away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cordoba at home only, Tenerife away only.

Cordoba vs Tenerife head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Cordoba 5 · draws 1 · Tenerife 2.

CordobaDrawsTenerife
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-02-15Tenerife2-3CordobaSegunda División
2024-12-08Cordoba3-0TenerifeSegunda División
2019-02-09Tenerife0-2CordobaSegunda División
2018-09-22Cordoba1-1TenerifeSegunda División
2018-02-11Tenerife5-1CordobaSegunda División
2017-09-17Cordoba2-0TenerifeSegunda División
2017-01-21Tenerife2-0CordobaSegunda División
2016-08-20Cordoba1-0TenerifeSegunda División

Other Matchday 8 fixtures