Segunda División · Matchday 8

Sabadell vs FC Andorra

· Nova Creu Alta, Sabadell· Referee Jose Guzman

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Sabadell to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SabadellDrawFC Andorra

Sabadell vs FC Andorra: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSabadellDrawFC Andorra
Model50%26%24%
Market———
Published50%26%24%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.16.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Sabadell and FC Andorra expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Sabadell
1.16FC Andorra
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (Sabadell / FC Andorra)
0.95 / 1.13
Defence rating (Sabadell / FC Andorra)
0.87 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sabadell vs FC Andorra score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 5.2% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 1 8.5% 12.2% 6.4% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.4% 9.7% 5.6% 2.2% 0.8% 3 4.9% 5.6% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 3.1% 3.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Sabadell goals. Columns: FC Andorra goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sabadell vs FC Andorra goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sabadell vs FC Andorra

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sabadell50%2.00
Draw26%3.88
FC Andorra24%4.15
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.80
Under 2.544%2.25
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.37
Double chance1X (Sabadell or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or FC Andorra)50%2.00
Handicap -1Sabadell win by 2+28%3.57
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sabadell and FC Andorra recent form

Sabadell 3W 2D 1L
FC Andorra 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sabadell at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

FC Andorra away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sabadell at home only, FC Andorra away only.

Sabadell vs FC Andorra head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Sabadell 0 · draws 2 · FC Andorra 3.

SabadellDrawsFC Andorra
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-01FC Andorra0-0SabadellFriendlies Clubs
2022-04-24FC Andorra2-1SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
2021-11-27Sabadell0-1FC AndorraPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
2020-08-26Sabadell0-1FC AndorraFriendlies Clubs
2019-11-09FC Andorra2-2SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 3

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