Updated

Allsvenskan · Matchday 23

AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna

· Strawberry Arena, Solna· Referee Adi Aganovic

Full time5 – 6

Alin prediction was AIK Stockholm to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AIK StockholmDrawIF Brommapojkarna

AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAIK StockholmDrawIF Brommapojkarna
Model51%25%24%
Market49%25%26%
Published50%25%25%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.25.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AIK Stockholm, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.90Now 1.90 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AIK Stockholm1.901.90+0.00
Draw3.773.77+0.00
IF Brommapojkarna3.623.62+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AIK Stockholm and IF Brommapojkarna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88AIK Stockholm
1.25IF Brommapojkarna
Total expected goals
3.13
Attack rating (AIK Stockholm / IF Brommapojkarna)
1.06 / 0.88
Defence rating (AIK Stockholm / IF Brommapojkarna)
1.06 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 4.4% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6% 1 7.2% 11.3% 6.4% 2.7% 1.1% 2 7.7% 9.7% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 4.8% 6.1% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7% 4+ 3.5% 4.4% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: AIK Stockholm goals. Columns: IF Brommapojkarna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AIK Stockholm50%2.01
Draw25%4.04
IF Brommapojkarna25%3.92
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.54
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.60
Double chance1X (AIK Stockholm or draw)75%1.34
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or IF Brommapojkarna)50%1.99
Handicap -1AIK Stockholm win by 2+30%3.37
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AIK Stockholm and IF Brommapojkarna recent form

AIK Stockholm 2W 2D 2L
IF Brommapojkarna 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AIK Stockholm at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-5
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.90
Clean sheets
2 of 10
  • They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IF Brommapojkarna away

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-5
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.36
Goals against / match
2.09
Clean sheets
0 of 11
  • They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: AIK Stockholm at home only, IF Brommapojkarna away only.

Injuries & availability

AIK Stockholm absences

  • A. Helm knee injury
  • A. Redkin knee injury
  • C. Pavey groin injury
  • D. Besirovic thigh injury
  • D. Tomas injury
  • F. Nissen injury
  • I. Cisse ankle injury
  • K. Filling knee injury
  • L. Bergquist knee injury
  • M. Ellingsen leg injury
  • S. Papagiannopoulos knee injury
  • T. Ayari calf injury

IF Brommapojkarna absences

  • L. Bjorklund inactive
  • O. Berg injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

AIK Stockholm lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 15 K. Nordfeldt
  2. 2 E. Edh
  3. 3 H. Matthys
  4. 20 S. Hausner
  5. 17 M. Thychosen
  6. 18 A. Ali
  7. 8 J. Hove
  8. 46 Yannick Geiger
  9. 10 L. Assadi
  10. 48 A. Kouame
  11. 9 L. Carlstrand

Bench: L. Bergquist, A. Mujanić, Sixten Gustafsson, S. Wilson, L. Järeteg, K. Joelsson, D. Tomas, T. Ayari

IF Brommapojkarna lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 L. Cavallius
  2. 6 O. Zandén
  3. 3 A. Troelsen
  4. 23 J. Simpson
  5. 21 S. Strand
  6. 17 A. Kurochkin
  7. 27 K. Barslund
  8. 20 W. Odefalk
  9. 9 M. Hansen
  10. 10 O. Berg
  11. 14 Kamilcan Sever

Bench: P. Vagić, O. Okeke, R. Örqvist, B. Amole, R. Bergvall, W. Derbali, D. Blažević, L. Björklund, David Isso

AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: AIK Stockholm 6 · draws 3 · IF Brommapojkarna 1.

AIK StockholmDrawsIF Brommapojkarna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-13IF Brommapojkarna2-2AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
2025-09-15AIK Stockholm2-1IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
2025-05-25IF Brommapojkarna0-1AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
2025-01-25IF Brommapojkarna3-0AIK StockholmFriendlies Clubs
2024-08-25AIK Stockholm2-1IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
2024-04-06IF Brommapojkarna2-2AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
2024-01-27IF Brommapojkarna0-3AIK StockholmFriendlies Clubs
2023-08-12AIK Stockholm2-2IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
2023-07-01IF Brommapojkarna0-2AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
2018-08-19IF Brommapojkarna0-2AIK StockholmAllsvenskan

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match