Updated

Allsvenskan · Matchday 23

IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK

· Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg· Referee Richard Sundell

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was IFK Goteborg to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
IFK GoteborgDrawVasteras SK FK

IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIFK GoteborgDrawVasteras SK FK
Model48%27%26%
Market54%24%23%
Published52%24%23%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.16.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on IFK Goteborg, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.67Now 1.73 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
IFK Goteborg1.671.73+0.06
Draw4.033.95-0.08
Vasteras SK FK4.454.12-0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65IFK Goteborg
1.16Vasteras SK FK
Total expected goals
2.81
Attack rating (IFK Goteborg / Vasteras SK FK)
1.26 / 1.13
Defence rating (IFK Goteborg / Vasteras SK FK)
0.76 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 5.8% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6% 1 8.8% 12.7% 6.7% 2.6% 1.0% 2 8.2% 9.5% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 2.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: IFK Goteborg goals. Columns: Vasteras SK FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2IFK Goteborg52%1.91
Draw24%4.11
Vasteras SK FK23%4.29
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.14
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.77
No44%2.30
Double chance1X (IFK Goteborg or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Vasteras SK FK)48%2.10
Handicap -1IFK Goteborg win by 2+26%3.87
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK recent form

IFK Goteborg 5W 1D 0L
Vasteras SK FK 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

IFK Goteborg at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-3-3
Win rate
45%
Goals for / match
1.36
Goals against / match
1.18
Clean sheets
2 of 11
  • They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vasteras SK FK away

Record (W-D-L)
6-1-4
Win rate
55%
Goals for / match
1.55
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
2 of 11
  • They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: IFK Goteborg at home only, Vasteras SK FK away only.

Injuries & availability

IFK Goteborg absences

  • A. Erlingmark inactive
  • A. Jallow muscle injury
  • A. Mucolli knee injury
  • H. Hermannsson yellow cards
  • R. Lundqvist inactive

Vasteras SK FK absences

  • F. Nsabiyumva inactive
  • I. Lushaku inactive
  • J. Ring muscle injury
  • M. Diallo health problems

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

IFK Goteborg lineup

  1. 7 Alexander Illum Simmelhack
  2. 15 D. Kruse
  3. 26 E. Fasth
  4. 5 J. Bager
  5. 4 K. Ackermann
  6. 11 N. Žugelj
  7. 22 Noah Tolf
  8. 24 O. Mansson
  9. 8 S. Larsson
  10. 14 T. Heintz
  11. 12 V. Andersson

Bench: M. Fenger, G. Ersoy, L. Radakovic, K. Þórðarson, E. Bishesari, A. Borén, I. Seidu, N. Lunden

Vasteras SK FK lineup

  1. 17 A. Taonsa
  2. 16 Bonaventure Lendambi
  3. 34 E. Jäger
  4. 2 H. Magnusson
  5. 15 J. Karlsson
  6. 19 J. Magnusson
  7. 24 J. Tagesson
  8. 8 M. Diagne
  9. 30 M. Hellisdal
  10. 4 P. Bonde
  11. 11 S. Gefvert

Bench: A. Fagerström, M. Baggesen, K. Gunnarsson, A. Boudah, J. Ring, F. Nsabiyumva, M. Ljungqvist, V. Wernersson, P. Amoran

IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: IFK Goteborg 2 · draws 2 · Vasteras SK FK 0.

IFK GoteborgDrawsVasteras SK FK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-31Vasteras SK FK4-5IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
2024-09-26Vasteras SK FK1-1IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
2024-07-21IFK Goteborg1-1Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
2020-02-22IFK Goteborg2-0Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match