Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF: model vs market
| Source | Mjallby AIF | Draw | Degerfors IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 31% | 49% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 24% |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 30% |
| Edge | -28% | +4% | +24% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mjallby AIF, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby AIF | 1.89 | 1.88 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.50 | -0.04 |
| Degerfors IF | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.15
- Attack rating (Mjallby AIF / Degerfors IF)
- 0.53 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Mjallby AIF / Degerfors IF)
- 1.32 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mjallby AIF goals. Columns: Degerfors IF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mjallby AIF | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Degerfors IF | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.38 |
| No | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mjallby AIF or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Degerfors IF) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mjallby AIF win by 2+ | 7% | 14.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF recent form
Mjallby AIF
0W 2D 4L
Degerfors IF
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mjallby AIF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-7
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Degerfors IF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-7
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 21 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mjallby AIF at home only, Degerfors IF away only.
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Mjallby AIF 3 · draws 0 · Degerfors IF 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Degerfors IF | 1-4 | Mjallby AIF | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-09-13 | Degerfors IF | 0-1 | Mjallby AIF | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-04-27 | Mjallby AIF | 4-1 | Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan |
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