Updated

Allsvenskan · Matchday 23

Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF

· Strandvallen, Hallevik· Referee Adam Ladeback

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Mjallby AIF to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Mjallby AIFDrawDegerfors IF

Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMjallby AIFDrawDegerfors IF
Model21%31%49%
Market50%27%24%
Published42%28%30%
Edge-7%+1%+6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mjallby AIF, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.89Now 1.88 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mjallby AIF1.891.88-0.01
Draw3.543.50-0.04
Degerfors IF3.803.90+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.80Mjallby AIF
1.35Degerfors IF
Total expected goals
2.15
Attack rating (Mjallby AIF / Degerfors IF)
0.53 / 0.76
Defence rating (Mjallby AIF / Degerfors IF)
1.31 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.9% 14.5% 10.7% 4.8% 2.2% 1 8.0% 13.8% 8.5% 3.8% 1.7% 2 3.7% 5.0% 3.4% 1.5% 0.7% 3 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Mjallby AIF goals. Columns: Degerfors IF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mjallby AIF42%2.36
Draw28%3.63
Degerfors IF30%3.33
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.75
Under 2.564%1.57
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.38
No58%1.73
Double chance1X (Mjallby AIF or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Degerfors IF)58%1.74
Handicap -1Mjallby AIF win by 2+7%14.74
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF recent form

Mjallby AIF 0W 2D 4L
Degerfors IF 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mjallby AIF at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-7
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.64
Clean sheets
3 of 11
  • They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Degerfors IF away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-7
Win rate
18%
Goals for / match
0.73
Goals against / match
1.73
Clean sheets
1 of 11
  • They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 22 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mjallby AIF at home only, Degerfors IF away only.

Injuries & availability

Mjallby AIF absences

  • M. Isaksson inactive
  • T. Stavitski back injury
  • V. Dalsgaard injury

Degerfors IF absences

  • J. Pikkarainen knee injury
  • K. Boutera yellow cards

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Mjallby AIF lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 35 A. Lundin
  2. 24 T. Pettersson
  3. 5 Abdullah Iqbal
  4. 33 T. Miettinen
  5. 25 M. Nielsen
  6. 22 J. Gustavsson
  7. 7 V. Gustafson
  8. 14 Villiam Granath
  9. 10 J. Kjær
  10. 18 J. Bergström
  11. 23 Á. Samuelsen

Bench: S. Hansen, L. Svanberg, M. Agnarsson, A. Norén, M. Enggård, I. Hoffmann, L. Tidstrand, Olle Lindberg, R. Leandersson

Degerfors IF lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 38 M. Igonen
  2. 16 S. Ohlsson
  3. 3 Nikolai Skuseth
  4. 2 Ahmad Faqa
  5. 6 D. Sundgren
  6. 8 B. Hussein
  7. 13 M. Hamilton
  8. 17 Arman Taranis
  9. 22 N. Girmai Netabay
  10. 10 N. Milleskog
  11. 14 L. Fritzson

Bench: W. Jakobsson, S. Ohlsson, D. Vukojević, N. Moro, S. Diatara, E. Barsoum, R. Dzabic, J. Hernandez

Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Mjallby AIF 8 · draws 1 · Degerfors IF 1.

Mjallby AIFDrawsDegerfors IF
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Degerfors IF1-4Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
2025-09-13Degerfors IF0-1Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
2025-04-27Mjallby AIF4-1Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
2023-11-12Degerfors IF1-2Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
2023-04-16Mjallby AIF2-0Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
2022-09-10Degerfors IF0-0Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
2022-07-23Mjallby AIF2-1Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
2021-08-28Degerfors IF0-2Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
2021-05-03Mjallby AIF1-0Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
2019-09-17Degerfors IF2-1Mjallby AIFSuperettan

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match