Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF: model vs market
| Source | Hammarby FF | Draw | Djurgardens IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | -22% | +6% | +16% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hammarby FF, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby FF | 1.75 | 1.74 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.98 | 3.98 | +0.00 |
| Djurgardens IF | 3.93 | 3.93 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Hammarby FF / Djurgardens IF)
- 1.23 / 1.54
- Defence rating (Hammarby FF / Djurgardens IF)
- 0.64 / 0.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hammarby FF goals. Columns: Djurgardens IF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hammarby FF | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Djurgardens IF | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hammarby FF or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Djurgardens IF) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hammarby FF win by 2+ | 13% | 7.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF recent form
Hammarby FF
4W 1D 1L
Djurgardens IF
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hammarby FF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-1
- Win rate
- 82%
- Goals for / match
- 3.09
- Goals against / match
- 0.55
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 11
- They have won 12 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Djurgardens IF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-2
- Win rate
- 70%
- Goals for / match
- 1.70
- Goals against / match
- 0.70
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 10
- They have won 13 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hammarby FF at home only, Djurgardens IF away only.
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Hammarby FF 2 · draws 2 · Djurgardens IF 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Djurgardens IF | 1-1 | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2026-03-15 | Hammarby FF | 1-0 | Djurgardens IF | Svenska Cupen |
| 2025-09-14 | Djurgardens IF | 3-3 | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-04-13 | Hammarby FF | 2-0 | Djurgardens IF | Allsvenskan |
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