Updated

Allsvenskan · Matchday 23

Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF

· 3Arena, Stockholm· Referee Granit Maqedonci

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Hammarby FF to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hammarby FFDrawDjurgardens IF

Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHammarby FFDrawDjurgardens IF
Model31%29%39%
Market54%23%23%
Published48%25%27%
Edge-6%+2%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hammarby FF, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.75Now 1.75 -0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hammarby FF1.751.75-0.00
Draw3.984.03+0.05
Djurgardens IF3.934.05+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Hammarby FF
1.34Djurgardens IF
Total expected goals
2.51
Attack rating (Hammarby FF / Djurgardens IF)
1.23 / 1.54
Defence rating (Hammarby FF / Djurgardens IF)
0.64 / 0.62

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.4% 9.6% 7.3% 3.2% 1.5% 1 8.3% 14.0% 8.5% 3.8% 1.7% 2 5.6% 7.5% 5.0% 2.2% 1.0% 3 2.2% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Hammarby FF goals. Columns: Djurgardens IF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hammarby FF48%2.08
Draw25%4.03
Djurgardens IF27%3.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.18
Under 2.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.92
No48%2.09
Double chance1X (Hammarby FF or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Djurgardens IF)52%1.93
Handicap -1Hammarby FF win by 2+13%7.47
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF recent form

Hammarby FF 4W 1D 1L
Djurgardens IF 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hammarby FF at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-1-1
Win rate
82%
Goals for / match
3.09
Goals against / match
0.55
Clean sheets
6 of 11
  • They have won 13 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Djurgardens IF away

Record (W-D-L)
7-1-2
Win rate
70%
Goals for / match
1.70
Goals against / match
0.70
Clean sheets
6 of 10
  • They have won 13 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hammarby FF at home only, Djurgardens IF away only.

Injuries & availability

Hammarby FF absences

  • A. Boudri inactive
  • B. Hedlof hip injury
  • N. Persson yellow cards

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Hammarby FF lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 W. Hahn
  2. 6 I. Fofana
  3. 3 F. Winther
  4. 4 V. Eriksson
  5. 2 E. Skoglund
  6. 28 F. Adjei
  7. 8 M. Karlsson
  8. 9 V. Lind
  9. 20 N. Besara
  10. 17 A. Boudri
  11. 7 P. Abraham

Bench: T. Tekie, W. Renecke, F. Jakobsson, S. Kebbeh, O. Steinke Branby, O. Moczarny

Djurgardens IF lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 35 J. Rinne
  2. 2 P. Johansson
  3. 4 J. Une-Larsson
  4. 5 M. Tenho
  5. 18 A. Ståhl
  6. 20 M. Siltanen
  7. 13 D. Stensson
  8. 19 J. Okkels
  9. 16 Bo Åsulv Hegland
  10. 8 P. Åslund
  11. 9 K. Lien

Bench: P. Langhoff, Christos Almyras, Abdul Abdulmalik, C. Rosenquist, O. Fallenius, M. Marques, M. Larsson, A. Andersson, Lukas Henrik Jonsson

Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Hammarby FF 5 · draws 4 · Djurgardens IF 1.

Hammarby FFDrawsDjurgardens IF
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26Djurgardens IF1-1Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
2026-03-15Hammarby FF1-0Djurgardens IFSvenska Cupen
2025-09-14Djurgardens IF3-3Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
2025-04-13Hammarby FF2-0Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
2024-10-21Hammarby FF2-0Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
2024-06-02Djurgardens IF0-3Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
2023-10-22Djurgardens IF0-0Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
2023-05-14Hammarby FF4-3Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
2022-09-11Hammarby FF0-0Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
2022-07-03Djurgardens IF1-0Hammarby FFAllsvenskan

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match