IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad Prediction & Betting Tips 12/10/2026

IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	IF Elfsborg	Draw	Halmstad
Model	62%	25%	13%
Market	69%	19%	12%
Published	68%	20%	12%
Edge	-7%	+6%	+1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.68.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad odds movement

Median bookmaker price on IF Elfsborg, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.35Now 1.33 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
IF Elfsborg	1.35	1.33	-0.02
Draw	4.88	4.88	+0.00
Halmstad	7.82	7.88	+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

IF Elfsborg and Halmstad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76IF Elfsborg

0.68Halmstad

Total expected goals: 2.44
Attack rating (IF Elfsborg / Halmstad): 1.09 / 0.72
Defence rating (IF Elfsborg / Halmstad): 0.70 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.7% 4.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1 14.3% 11.5% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2% 2 13.5% 9.2% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3 7.9% 5.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 5.2% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: IF Elfsborg goals. Columns: Halmstad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	IF Elfsborg	68%	1.48
	Draw	20%	4.91
	Halmstad	12%	8.34
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.27
	Under 2.5	56%	1.79
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.39
	No	58%	1.72
Double chance	1X (IF Elfsborg or draw)	88%	1.14
	12 (either side)	80%	1.26
	X2 (draw or Halmstad)	32%	3.09
Handicap -1	IF Elfsborg win by 2+	37%	2.71
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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IF Elfsborg and Halmstad recent form

IF Elfsborg 4W 1D 1L

Halmstad 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

IF Elfsborg at home

Record (W-D-L): 6-3-2
Win rate: 55%
Goals for / match: 1.55
Goals against / match: 0.82
Clean sheets: 5 of 11

They have won 9 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Halmstad away

Record (W-D-L): 0-3-8
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.64
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 11

They have won 2 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 9 of 21 matches.
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: IF Elfsborg at home only, Halmstad away only.

IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: IF Elfsborg 1 · draws 1 · Halmstad 1.

33% 33% 34%

IF ElfsborgDrawsHalmstad

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-16	Halmstad	1-1	IF Elfsborg	Allsvenskan
2025-08-24	IF Elfsborg	1-2	Halmstad	Allsvenskan
2025-05-25	Halmstad	1-4	IF Elfsborg	Allsvenskan

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Prediction snapshot IF Elfsborg to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on IF Elfsborg