Sirius vs IF Elfsborg preview
In the Allsvenskan fixture between Sirius and IF Elfsborg, the 1X2 probabilities show Sirius at 45%, while IF Elfsborg stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-0, which has a 10% chance of occurring.
Sirius has a strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while IF Elfsborg has 4 wins and 1 draw in the same period. Although the expected goals are close, with Sirius at 1.26 and IF Elfsborg at 1.13, the confidence grade is C. This indicates that while Sirius has the edge, factors like IF Elfsborg's recent performance could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg: model vs market
| Source | Sirius | Draw | IF Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Edge | -16% | +4% | +12% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sirius, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius | 1.95 | 1.95 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.64 | -0.01 |
| IF Elfsborg | 3.50 | 3.55 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sirius and IF Elfsborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Sirius / IF Elfsborg)
- 1.17 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Sirius / IF Elfsborg)
- 0.77 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sirius goals. Columns: IF Elfsborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sirius | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| IF Elfsborg | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sirius or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or IF Elfsborg) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sirius win by 2+ | 14% | 7.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Sirius and IF Elfsborg recent form
Sirius
5W 0D 1L
IF Elfsborg
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sirius at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-2
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 2.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 16 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IF Elfsborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-3
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sirius at home only, IF Elfsborg away only.
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Sirius 3 · draws 0 · IF Elfsborg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | IF Elfsborg | 1-3 | Sirius | Allsvenskan |
| 2026-03-08 | IF Elfsborg | 1-2 | Sirius | Svenska Cupen |
| 2025-10-26 | Sirius | 4-0 | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-04-23 | IF Elfsborg | 4-3 | Sirius | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
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- AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF 2026-10-18
- Malmo FF v BK Hacken — match page 2026-10-18
- Halmstad vs Hammarby FF 2026-10-18
- Orgryte IS v Gais — match page 2026-10-18
- Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Sirius, previous: Gais v Sirius analysis
- IF Elfsborg, previous: IF Elfsborg v Halmstad analysis