Orgryte IS vs Gais preview
In the match between Orgryte IS and Gais, the 1X2 probabilities show Gais with a 55% chance to win compared to Orgryte IS at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Gais's expected goals of 1.79 against Orgryte IS's 0.99.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 53%, indicating a potential for a more open game. However, Orgryte IS's recent form has been poor with 4 losses in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Gais, on the other hand, has shown better form with 3 wins in their last 5 games.
Orgryte IS vs Gais: model vs market
| Source | Orgryte IS | Draw | Gais |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Published | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Orgryte IS vs Gais odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gais, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte IS | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Gais | 1.70 | 1.67 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Orgryte IS and Gais expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.77
- Attack rating (Orgryte IS / Gais)
- 0.86 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Orgryte IS / Gais)
- 1.33 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Orgryte IS vs Gais score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Orgryte IS goals. Columns: Gais goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Orgryte IS vs Gais goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Orgryte IS vs Gais
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orgryte IS | 21% | 4.81 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Gais | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Orgryte IS or draw) | 45% | 2.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Gais) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gais win by 2+ | 32% | 3.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Orgryte IS and Gais recent form
Orgryte IS
1W 1D 4L
Gais
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Orgryte IS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-4
- Win rate
- 9%
- Goals for / match
- 1.55
- Goals against / match
- 1.82
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 3 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gais away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.09
- Goals against / match
- 1.45
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Orgryte IS at home only, Gais away only.
Orgryte IS vs Gais head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Orgryte IS 0 · draws 0 · Gais 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Gais | 4-0 | Orgryte IS | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
- IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF 2026-10-16
- AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Sirius vs IF Elfsborg — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF 2026-10-18
- Malmo FF v BK Hacken — match page 2026-10-18
- Halmstad vs Hammarby FF 2026-10-18
- Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Orgryte IS, previous: BK Hacken – Orgryte IS, 2026-10-11
- Gais, previous: Gais v Sirius analysis