BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS: model vs market
| Source | BK Hacken | Draw | Orgryte IS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Published | 70% | 18% | 13% |
| Edge | -7% | +4% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on BK Hacken, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| BK Hacken | 1.30 | 1.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.50 | +0.00 |
| Orgryte IS | 7.88 | 7.90 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
BK Hacken and Orgryte IS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.27
- Attack rating (BK Hacken / Orgryte IS)
- 1.16 / 0.93
- Defence rating (BK Hacken / Orgryte IS)
- 0.82 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: BK Hacken goals. Columns: Orgryte IS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BK Hacken | 70% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.60 | |
| Orgryte IS | 13% | 7.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (BK Hacken or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Orgryte IS) | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | BK Hacken win by 2+ | 42% | 2.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
BK Hacken and Orgryte IS recent form
BK Hacken
3W 2D 1L
Orgryte IS
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
BK Hacken at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-2
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orgryte IS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-9
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 2.64
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 3 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: BK Hacken at home only, Orgryte IS away only.
BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: BK Hacken 0 · draws 0 · Orgryte IS 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Orgryte IS | 4-3 | BK Hacken | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
- IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK 2026-10-09
- AIK Stockholm v IF Brommapojkarna — match page 2026-10-10
- Gais vs Sirius — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF 2026-10-10
- Hammarby FF v Djurgardens IF — match page 2026-10-11
- IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad 2026-10-12
- Malmo FF v Kalmar FF — match page 2026-10-12