Updated

Allsvenskan · Matchday 23

Gais vs Sirius

· Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg· Referee Victor Wolf

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Gais to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GaisDrawSirius

Gais vs Sirius: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGaisDrawSirius
Model42%28%30%
Market38%27%35%
Published39%27%34%
Edge+1%0%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gais vs Sirius odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gais, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.44Now 2.44 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gais2.442.44+0.00
Draw3.503.50+0.00
Sirius2.622.69+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gais and Sirius expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.46Gais
1.21Sirius
Total expected goals
2.67
Attack rating (Gais / Sirius)
1.13 / 1.23
Defence rating (Gais / Sirius)
0.73 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gais vs Sirius score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 7.1% 5.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1 8.9% 13.5% 7.4% 3.0% 1.2% 2 7.4% 8.9% 5.4% 2.2% 0.9% 3 3.6% 4.4% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 1.8% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Gais goals. Columns: Sirius goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gais vs Sirius goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gais vs Sirius

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gais39%2.55
Draw27%3.69
Sirius34%2.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.00
Under 2.550%2.00
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.81
No45%2.23
Double chance1X (Gais or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Sirius)61%1.65
Handicap -1Gais win by 2+21%4.80
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gais and Sirius recent form

Gais 3W 1D 2L
Sirius 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gais at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-2
Win rate
45%
Goals for / match
1.45
Goals against / match
0.36
Clean sheets
7 of 11
  • They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sirius away

Record (W-D-L)
9-1-1
Win rate
82%
Goals for / match
2.45
Goals against / match
1.18
Clean sheets
4 of 11
  • They have won 16 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gais at home only, Sirius away only.

Injuries & availability

Gais absences

  • B. Asumang illness
  • D. Collander inactive
  • G. Lundgren achilles tendon injury
  • K. Holmen knee injury
  • M. Bawa illness
  • R. Thorkelsson knee injury
  • W. Milovanovic illness

Sirius absences

  • M. Lindberg yellow cards
  • O. Liimatta thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Gais lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 M. Krasniqi
  2. 2 M. de Brienne
  3. 24 F. Beckman
  4. 4 O. Ågren
  5. 6 A. Wängberg
  6. 14 S. Jørgensen
  7. 7 J. Åberg
  8. 10 H. Sletsjøe
  9. 11 R. Niklasson
  10. 21 N. Vasić
  11. 16 M. Andersson

Bench: R. Thomasson, R. Frej, S. Salter, A. Cardaklija, Jonas Lindberg, L. Hedlund, C. Gravius, O. Pettersson, A. Hermansen

Sirius lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 34 D. Celic
  2. 22 O. Krusnell
  3. 4 T. Anker
  4. 15 S. Sandberg
  5. 5 H. Castegren
  6. 21 C. Nildén
  7. 10 M. Heier
  8. 24 V. Svensson
  9. 11 I. Bjerkebo
  10. 30 Z. Vancsa

Bench: I. Diawara, Mohamed Soumah, J. Persson, Matthias Nartey, N. Jönsson, A. Wikman, V. Ekström, O. Adindu, E. Eld

Gais vs Sirius head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Gais 2 · draws 2 · Sirius 3.

GaisDrawsSirius
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-24Sirius2-1GaisAllsvenskan
2025-09-14Sirius3-0GaisAllsvenskan
2025-05-24Gais2-1SiriusAllsvenskan
2024-11-10Gais2-1SiriusAllsvenskan
2024-07-13Sirius3-1GaisAllsvenskan
2016-08-29Sirius0-0GaisSuperettan
2016-06-11Gais0-0SiriusSuperettan

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match