Gais vs Sirius preview
In the Allsvenskan fixture between Gais and Sirius, the model gives Gais a 39% chance to win, while Sirius has a 34% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Gais, with a 9% probability. Both teams to score has a 55% chance, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 50%.
Gais has an expected goals figure of 1.46, while Sirius is at 1.21. Recent form shows Gais with two wins in their last five matches, while Sirius has three wins in the same period. The head-to-head record favors Sirius, with two wins in the last three encounters. A potential upset could occur if Sirius improves their attacking efficiency.
Gais vs Sirius: model vs market
| Source | Gais | Draw | Sirius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | +4% | +2% | -5% |
- The market prices Gais below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gais vs Sirius odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gais, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gais | 2.44 | 2.45 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Sirius | 2.62 | 2.62 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gais and Sirius expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (Gais / Sirius)
- 1.13 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Gais / Sirius)
- 0.73 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gais vs Sirius score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gais goals. Columns: Sirius goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gais vs Sirius goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gais vs Sirius
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gais | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Sirius | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gais or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Sirius) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gais win by 2+ | 21% | 4.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gais and Sirius recent form
Gais
3W 1D 2L
Sirius
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gais at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-2
- Win rate
- 45%
- Goals for / match
- 1.45
- Goals against / match
- 0.36
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 11
- They have won 7 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sirius away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-1
- Win rate
- 82%
- Goals for / match
- 2.45
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 15 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gais at home only, Sirius away only.
Gais vs Sirius head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Gais 1 · draws 0 · Sirius 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Sirius | 2-1 | Gais | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-09-14 | Sirius | 3-0 | Gais | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-05-24 | Gais | 2-1 | Sirius | Allsvenskan |
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