Updated

Allsvenskan · Matchday 23

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF

· Eleda Stadion, Malmö· Referee Oscar Johnson

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Malmo FF to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Malmo FFDrawKalmar FF

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMalmo FFDrawKalmar FF
Model63%22%15%
Market56%24%20%
Published58%23%19%
Edge+2%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Malmo FF, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.75Now 1.67 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Malmo FF1.751.67-0.08
Draw3.783.94+0.16
Kalmar FF4.204.62+0.42

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Malmo FF and Kalmar FF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.09Malmo FF
0.92Kalmar FF
Total expected goals
3.01
Attack rating (Malmo FF / Kalmar FF)
1.16 / 0.79
Defence rating (Malmo FF / Kalmar FF)
0.86 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 3.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1 9.3% 10.4% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 2 10.7% 9.9% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 3 7.5% 6.9% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 6.4% 5.9% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%

Rows: Malmo FF goals. Columns: Kalmar FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Malmo FF58%1.73
Draw23%4.29
Kalmar FF19%5.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.72
Under 2.542%2.38
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.16
Double chance1X (Malmo FF or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Kalmar FF)42%2.37
Handicap -1Malmo FF win by 2+40%2.48
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Malmo FF and Kalmar FF recent form

Malmo FF 3W 1D 2L
Kalmar FF 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Malmo FF at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-6
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
2.18
Goals against / match
1.82
Clean sheets
2 of 11
  • They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kalmar FF away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-9
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.64
Goals against / match
1.73
Clean sheets
1 of 11
  • They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 22 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Malmo FF at home only, Kalmar FF away only.

Injuries & availability

Malmo FF absences

  • A. Christiansen inactive
  • E. Ekong knee injury
  • K. Busuladzic injury
  • O. Sjostrand knee injury
  • P. Jansson knee injury
  • W. Kamanzi muscle injury

Kalmar FF absences

  • J. Kindberg inactive
  • K. Paananen thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Malmo FF lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 R. Olsen
  2. 25 Busanello
  3. 44 M. Pålsson
  4. 5 A. Đurić
  5. 17 J. Stryger Larsen
  6. 28 J. Milosavljević
  7. 37 A. Skogmar
  8. 7 O. Rosengren
  9. 15 M. Lahdo
  10. 32 D. Guðjohnsen
  11. 45 A. Hoog

Bench: B. Kurtulus, Y. Karabelyov, A. Christiansen, E. Ekong, J. Dahlin, S. Hakšabanović, V. Jeppsson, Theodor Lundbergh

Kalmar FF lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Brolin
  2. 2 V. Larsson
  3. 4 J. Löfgren
  4. 39 L. Sætra
  5. 26 M. Ylitolva
  6. 5 M. Hallberg
  7. 17 C. Gustafsson
  8. 24 C. Sagoe
  9. 21 A. Magashy
  10. 10 M. Söderbäck
  11. 6 V. Tyren

Bench: S. Øverby, M. Stolt, Z. Råvik, E. Dall, T. Lauritsen, R. Gojani, N. Shamoun, J. Kindberg

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Malmo FF 4 · draws 3 · Kalmar FF 3.

Malmo FFDrawsKalmar FF
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-20Kalmar FF2-2Malmo FFAllsvenskan
2026-03-20Malmo FF1-1Kalmar FFFriendlies Clubs
2024-08-24Kalmar FF2-2Malmo FFAllsvenskan
2024-05-24Malmo FF5-0Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
2023-10-08Kalmar FF1-0Malmo FFAllsvenskan
2023-04-01Malmo FF1-0Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
2022-08-28Malmo FF0-1Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
2022-04-03Kalmar FF0-1Malmo FFAllsvenskan
2021-11-28Kalmar FF0-1Malmo FFAllsvenskan
2021-06-12Malmo FF0-1Kalmar FFFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match