Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF: model vs market
| Source | Malmo FF | Draw | Kalmar FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Edge | +10% | -3% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Malmo FF below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Malmo FF, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.76 | -0.02 |
| Kalmar FF | 4.20 | 4.18 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Malmo FF and Kalmar FF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Malmo FF / Kalmar FF)
- 1.16 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Malmo FF / Kalmar FF)
- 0.87 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Malmo FF goals. Columns: Kalmar FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malmo FF | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Kalmar FF | 20% | 4.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Malmo FF or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Kalmar FF) | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Malmo FF win by 2+ | 40% | 2.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Malmo FF and Kalmar FF recent form
Malmo FF
3W 1D 2L
Kalmar FF
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Malmo FF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 2.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.82
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalmar FF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-9
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 21 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Malmo FF at home only, Kalmar FF away only.
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Malmo FF 0 · draws 1 · Kalmar FF 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Kalmar FF | 2-2 | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan |
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