AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg preview
In the upcoming match between AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg, the 1X2 probabilities show AIK at 23%, a draw at 22%, and Goteborg at 55%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to our model. Goteborg's recent form is strong, with 6 consecutive wins, while AIK has struggled, recording 2 losses in their last 3 matches.
The model also indicates a 69% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance for both teams to score. AIK's expected goals are 1.36, compared to Goteborg's 2.17. If AIK can improve their form and capitalize on their home advantage, they could challenge Goteborg's momentum. However, their recent performances raise concerns about their ability to secure points.
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg: model vs market
| Source | AIK Stockholm | Draw | IFK Goteborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Published | 34% | 25% | 42% |
| Edge | -14% | -3% | +17% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices IFK Goteborg below the model: +17.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IFK Goteborg, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIK Stockholm | 2.49 | 2.50 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.65 | +0.00 |
| IFK Goteborg | 2.51 | 2.50 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.54
- Attack rating (AIK Stockholm / IFK Goteborg)
- 1.28 / 1.19
- Defence rating (AIK Stockholm / IFK Goteborg)
- 1.36 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AIK Stockholm goals. Columns: IFK Goteborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AIK Stockholm | 34% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| IFK Goteborg | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AIK Stockholm or draw) | 58% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or IFK Goteborg) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Goteborg win by 2+ | 34% | 2.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg recent form
AIK Stockholm
1W 2D 3L
IFK Goteborg
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AIK Stockholm at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.55
- Goals against / match
- 2.27
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IFK Goteborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-5
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.45
- Goals against / match
- 2.55
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AIK Stockholm at home only, IFK Goteborg away only.
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: AIK Stockholm 2 · draws 0 · IFK Goteborg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | IFK Goteborg | 1-2 | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-08-17 | IFK Goteborg | 2-1 | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-06-29 | AIK Stockholm | 3-0 | IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
- IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF 2026-10-16
- Sirius vs IF Elfsborg — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF 2026-10-18
- Malmo FF v BK Hacken — match page 2026-10-18
- Halmstad vs Hammarby FF 2026-10-18
- Orgryte IS v Gais — match page 2026-10-18
- Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- AIK Stockholm, previous: AIK Stockholm – IF Brommapojkarna, 2026-10-10
- IFK Goteborg, previous: IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK prediction